07-21-2016, 06:52 AM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT
The speed is high enough that this 48 hour forecast is likely to be what will happen. However that 48 hour point is prior to the turn to the north and is still offshore of Hawaii:
48 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 AM HST Sat July 23, 2016
Location: 18.9 N, 153.6 W
Maximum Wind: 55 knots (65 mph)
Wind Gusts: 65 knots (75 mph)
The sudden northward trend caused by the upper atmosphere has its own set of error predictions that compound to make turns like this less likely. In 24 hours there should be a better understanding and updated guidance to indicate how real this turn might be.
The speed is high enough that this 48 hour forecast is likely to be what will happen. However that 48 hour point is prior to the turn to the north and is still offshore of Hawaii:
48 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 AM HST Sat July 23, 2016
Location: 18.9 N, 153.6 W
Maximum Wind: 55 knots (65 mph)
Wind Gusts: 65 knots (75 mph)
The sudden northward trend caused by the upper atmosphere has its own set of error predictions that compound to make turns like this less likely. In 24 hours there should be a better understanding and updated guidance to indicate how real this turn might be.