07-23-2016, 02:46 AM
It appears Darby is following the path of the original GFS model, which predicted it to go nearer to south point, but the forecasters didn't like that and used the curve from another model which took it over Hilo.
Most models show it curving slightly south of Volcano, however they might continue to have an accuracy problem about when and where this curve might take place. It is still traveling slowly WEST at 8 knots (9mph).
When a hurricane is moving slowly like this one, and there's no curvature, it is often very difficult for the forecasts to get it right about where or when or if it will curve.
Unfortunately we are on now on the rougher side of the storm and we should see the worst of it between now and 5pm. Then we might get some follow up down pours and very hot, humid weather.
Edit: They've shifted the peak wind forecast for hilo to be early afternoon.
Most models show it curving slightly south of Volcano, however they might continue to have an accuracy problem about when and where this curve might take place. It is still traveling slowly WEST at 8 knots (9mph).
When a hurricane is moving slowly like this one, and there's no curvature, it is often very difficult for the forecasts to get it right about where or when or if it will curve.
Unfortunately we are on now on the rougher side of the storm and we should see the worst of it between now and 5pm. Then we might get some follow up down pours and very hot, humid weather.
Edit: They've shifted the peak wind forecast for hilo to be early afternoon.