Hurricane season 2016

[Eric1600]

ISS view of the current 3 hurricanes in action https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5d-lCAlfr5s

The intensity of Madeline has been difficult to forecast and each Hurricane Hunter sweep has reduced its strength some. So the forecasters have become more aggressive on its downgrading trend. However outer bands on tropical revolving storms often pack some high winds and sever rains. And the NW quadrant tends to be the roughest because of the direction of rotation and forward motion (see http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html) . In the video the Atlantic hurricane has very well defined bands which you can see clearly. The advantage of just being hit with the outer bands is that they tend to be short duration but the wind directions and strength variations are crazy.

Forecasters are feeling pretty confident about the track now.

quote:

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While low cloud lines seen in a 1129Z VIIRS day night image hinted
that the low-level center of Madeline was becoming partially
exposed, a timely 1126Z GPM pass confirmed this. Using this
position, the initial motion vector for this advisory is 260/12 kt,
which represents a slight acceleration from previous advisories.
Despite a wider than normal spread in the along- and cross-track
guidance, most guidance has been consistent from run-to-run, and
there is little change in the track forecast philosophy presented
over the past couple of days.

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