02-27-2017, 06:15 AM
“Why do different sites have different forecasts? AccuWeather says dry till tomorrow, NOAA says rain tonight but at each hour the icon is clouds (no rain), Hawaii weather now is somewhere in between. Do they all have different tools or methods of prediction? “
Most weather services that I know of use numerical models, along with a combination of observations and local knowledge;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_...prediction
There is a new player in town though- IBM’s Watson is already delivering an AI (Artificial Intelligence) forecast-this is a first and has been around for about a year;
https://www.google.com/#q=hilo+hi+weather+forecast
This forecast is verifying really well here though not 100% but it has been beating the competition. I love that meteorology is not an exact science-there is still much we do not know. I dread the day weather modification happens as I think we’ll mess it up!
Once GOES-16 comes online-this Spring expect all wx forecasts/models to improve dramatically as the resolution of this satellite is Awe inspiring. This will lead to a better initialization of models. Better information in better forecast out.
Technology is catching up fast to wx forecasting and there are many improvements planned in the next few years;
https://weather.com/news/news/improved-g...curacy-gfs
Myself and a few others think that NOAA has made a mistake (they chose their own in house model to improve) and are not going to use the vast weather research community here in the US-(dumb);
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/th...lects.html
Finally a fun place to see how well the weather forecast you’re using is here;
http://www.forecastadvisor.com/Hawaii/Mo...iew/96771/
Go to search and you can select your own zip code- not all weather forecasts are represented here.
Up here in Mountain View we didn’t receive any rain until this morning but now it’s socked in-expect spotty Thunderstorms today and then more widespread downpours tomorrow as the air masses will be mixing it up right over our heads. That will be the nature of this event-uneven. Everything is coming into place, now we just need a trigger.
As for current situation a Flash Flood Watch has just been issued starting at noon today;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/FFAHFO
Winter Storm Watch for summits above 12,500’ starting tonight
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/WSWHFO
Most weather services that I know of use numerical models, along with a combination of observations and local knowledge;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_...prediction
There is a new player in town though- IBM’s Watson is already delivering an AI (Artificial Intelligence) forecast-this is a first and has been around for about a year;
https://www.google.com/#q=hilo+hi+weather+forecast
This forecast is verifying really well here though not 100% but it has been beating the competition. I love that meteorology is not an exact science-there is still much we do not know. I dread the day weather modification happens as I think we’ll mess it up!
Once GOES-16 comes online-this Spring expect all wx forecasts/models to improve dramatically as the resolution of this satellite is Awe inspiring. This will lead to a better initialization of models. Better information in better forecast out.
Technology is catching up fast to wx forecasting and there are many improvements planned in the next few years;
https://weather.com/news/news/improved-g...curacy-gfs
Myself and a few others think that NOAA has made a mistake (they chose their own in house model to improve) and are not going to use the vast weather research community here in the US-(dumb);
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/th...lects.html
Finally a fun place to see how well the weather forecast you’re using is here;
http://www.forecastadvisor.com/Hawaii/Mo...iew/96771/
Go to search and you can select your own zip code- not all weather forecasts are represented here.
Up here in Mountain View we didn’t receive any rain until this morning but now it’s socked in-expect spotty Thunderstorms today and then more widespread downpours tomorrow as the air masses will be mixing it up right over our heads. That will be the nature of this event-uneven. Everything is coming into place, now we just need a trigger.
As for current situation a Flash Flood Watch has just been issued starting at noon today;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/FFAHFO
Winter Storm Watch for summits above 12,500’ starting tonight
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/WSWHFO