10-05-2017, 04:05 PM
I don't dispute or argue with any points you made, or are listed in the articles cited. But i don't think my basic question has been answered -what happens to East Hawaii if the Jones Act is repealed, and Young Brothers / Matson go out of business ?
I have no doubt that Oahu prices would drop . I do think they might not drop as much as some hope, because stopping in Hawaii on the way to the mainland is not necessarily good economics in terms of time/fuel costs for large container ships. But, how will containers be brought from Oahu to here ? Is East Hawaii a large enough market, with a large enough port, to warrant container ships coming from Asia to stop here ? And as always, the economics need to factor in what would be the return cargo ? Articles cited talk about how the Jones Act destroyed Hawaii agriculture. Yes, that was true, but now in a more globalized economy, do you really think our bananas, or any other tropical fruit, would compete in the USA market with those trucked up from Central America ? Have you had a chance to speak to local orchid farmers about what they expect to happen to their exports once cheaper Asian product is allowed ?
The last time that I know of where there was an equal balance of shipping to and from the Big Island was when Young Brothers brought barges of sugar up to the mainland, and brought back barges of fertilizer. Now, even our fuel barges that bring product from the refinery on Oahu go back empty. Will a foreign company have a way to balance that loss of revenue, or will our fuel prices jump to make sure their profit margins are met ?
I am not trying to argue in favor of keeping the Jones Act. I just think there are many factors to deal with and think through. Having done a bit of traveling to some other South Pacific islands, I think people should be aware of potential situations when there is not reliable, dependable transport between islands.
I have no doubt that Oahu prices would drop . I do think they might not drop as much as some hope, because stopping in Hawaii on the way to the mainland is not necessarily good economics in terms of time/fuel costs for large container ships. But, how will containers be brought from Oahu to here ? Is East Hawaii a large enough market, with a large enough port, to warrant container ships coming from Asia to stop here ? And as always, the economics need to factor in what would be the return cargo ? Articles cited talk about how the Jones Act destroyed Hawaii agriculture. Yes, that was true, but now in a more globalized economy, do you really think our bananas, or any other tropical fruit, would compete in the USA market with those trucked up from Central America ? Have you had a chance to speak to local orchid farmers about what they expect to happen to their exports once cheaper Asian product is allowed ?
The last time that I know of where there was an equal balance of shipping to and from the Big Island was when Young Brothers brought barges of sugar up to the mainland, and brought back barges of fertilizer. Now, even our fuel barges that bring product from the refinery on Oahu go back empty. Will a foreign company have a way to balance that loss of revenue, or will our fuel prices jump to make sure their profit margins are met ?
I am not trying to argue in favor of keeping the Jones Act. I just think there are many factors to deal with and think through. Having done a bit of traveling to some other South Pacific islands, I think people should be aware of potential situations when there is not reliable, dependable transport between islands.