02-10-2018, 06:26 PM
quote:An interesting aside about the folks over in HOVE..
Originally posted by Midnight Rambler
I hate myself for it but I sure hope it is the SW rift zone.
Don't hate yourself, it most likely will be. The southwest rift hasn't erupted since 1950, so it's long overdue. Keep in mind that in or adjacent to Ocean View are lava flows from 1868, 1887, 1906, 1919, 1926, and 1950.
Back in "the day," 1990 to be precise, the last time the USGS updated their lava zone map, they were trying to inform the public about it and visiting all the community associations they could get invited to talk with. When they contacted the HOVE Association they were told not to bother, their residence weren't interesting in hearing what HVO had to say. I can only hope the people over there are a bit more aware, and open minded, these days. The threat to them is probably the biggest on the entire island.
A look at a geologic map of the area is a real eye opener. The Southwest Rift of Mauna Loa actually goes right through the upper (mauka) portion of the subdivision. It's not like Hilo which lava from Mauna Loa actually takes months to reach. In HOVE it can happen immediately, and with very little notice.
I am sure HVO is much more aware, instrumentally, than they were when Mauna Loa last erupted in 1984. But look at the history of the eruptions on the West slope of the volcano is enough to give anyone pause. And to think that during the 1950 eruption lava was able to travel 12 miles (from vent to sea) in as little as 2 hours. I do not think we (as a community, government, civil defense etc) are prepared at all. In fact I think it is very likely that an eruption along the Southwest rift is potentially life threatening to thousands of people that live along that portion of the volcano.
Add to that the fact that even when HVO was aware Mauna Loa was in a heightened state and ready to erupt when it did in 1984 it caught the entire observatory by surprise. In fact the night the eruption started was the night of Bob Decker's (the Scientist in Charge at the time) retirement party and most of the observatory was pretty much snookered by the time they realized there was an eruption in progress. But those flows, even though they started at the submit, migrated to the East and were no immediate threat to developed property. If the same were to happen today, and the vent migration were to be down the Southwest rift rather than the East, I suspect there would be hundreds, if not thousands, of people impacted long before anyone, HVO, CD, Harry, arrived on scene.
But as I said, the amount of instrumentation today is way different than in times gone by. And with the post 9/11 mentality of government controlling everything they can I suspect they'd be all over the place with their roadblocks and restrictions etc., as the seismicity increased and deformation suggested an eruption was imminent. But the real question still remains, are the folks in HOVE and elsewhere along that stretch of the island ready to listen?
There is some footage of the 1950 eruption of Mauna Loa on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-l__Aj3XyGo