02-12-2018, 05:58 PM
In this case, we understand the mechanism, but there is such a high degree of uncertainty/variability in the frequency, that, for all intents and purposes, the recurrence interval doesn't have much meaning. " The recurrence interval is every 55 years +/-300/49 yrs".
It is the same situation for Mauna Loa - but we don't have a long enough time frame to know what the average recurrence interval is. Was the 5 year recurrence interval during the last ~300 or so years anomalous compared to the prior 10,000 years? I can't say that we know with any certainty... We could have a flow rolling down the SW flank of Mauna Loa next week (although not very likely), or not for another 100 years...
It is the same situation for Mauna Loa - but we don't have a long enough time frame to know what the average recurrence interval is. Was the 5 year recurrence interval during the last ~300 or so years anomalous compared to the prior 10,000 years? I can't say that we know with any certainty... We could have a flow rolling down the SW flank of Mauna Loa next week (although not very likely), or not for another 100 years...