09-02-2018, 04:49 PM
Kirt, sorry for the gobbledegook our resident scientist (he calls himself that so we humor him. But really his behavior suggest he's no more than a spoiled brat) gave you. You'll note he said a bunch of things but really didn't answer your question, eh?
There were a lot of forces involved, and yes the distance from the island was a major factor. Though there is one force that Mr Knowitall neglected to mention directly, because he can't. He won’t. And watch, he will belittle and demean anyone that would suggest that our local mountains actually played a substantial part is why Kona was so dry.
You will note that before Lane interacted with the island it was pretty symmetrical. So all that gobbledygook the purest (those that don't believe in Mauna Mana) tell you about why it's forces, wind and water etc got concentrate on the east side of the island but still negate to mention the island itself is just that. Gobbledygook. And that so called astronomer knows it. Instead of saying it outright (because he can't - his ego won't fit through that door) he throws at you, without explanation "orographic lift." WTF. He says the island don't mean sh*t but oh oh oh there is orographic lift! Guess what the definition of orographic lift is? "Orographic lift occurs when an air mass is forced from a low elevation to a higher elevation as it moves over rising terrain.”
Wow, we're half way there! But he won't ever, EVER, say the real juicy part. Nope, his ego is way too fragile for that! The wind sometimes doesn't even go over our mountains BECAUSE THEY ARE TOO BIG! And is forced. Forced I tell you! By some magic (Mana? It is called Mana Road after all. That’s gotta stand for something, right?) that makes the wind, while defying everything TomK holds dear, actually go around them. Almost as if they are obstacles. But, please, for your own safety, do not call them as such otherwise our den mother with have a sissy fit. And that silly astronomer may lose his lunch. Nope, we're only allowed to call them speed bumps. Remember that if you want to play nice in this sand box.
Ok.. enough with the preamble..
I repost the following so as to help you see in detail my thoughts on how it is Kona didn't get any of the effect of Lane. It is initially my answer to the question "Did we learn anything from this storm." and though I post it so as to help further the discussion you were obviously so brave to start, I also must warn you the following has already caused Mr K to practically have a heart attack. So if he holds true to form.. and my bet is he can't help himself.. he will be rushing to burn me in effigy.. and probably make many posts to inform you how out of my mind I am.. but hey..
From: http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=25360
I think we witnessed, and those that hadn’t considered it before learned, that our island, being as big and tall as it is, has a unique disruptive influence on the stability of large scale centrifugal weather systems. That our island’s edifices introduce variables into the system’s lower region that set in motion changes that can create instabilities that can effect the entire system as a whole.
Referring back to earlier discussions, yes I agree, a large centrifugal weather system like Lane is far taller, and wider, than our island. And yes, when a system spins the top half may have enough momentum to carry it over obstacles that the bottom half encounters. But none the less, if the bottom half of the system encounters barriers, some change that it has to account for it, they have the potential to introduce variables that will effect the entire system if they are substantial enough. In our case, the barrier is the impressive size of our island with its pointed structures which act like teeth. Broad, gently sloping yet in Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea’s case they are tall enough to block the surface winds and reach into those above. This, obviously, has enough of an effect that on a regular trade wind day it is the overwhelming factor in how the winds and the moisture they carry is moved around and over the island. Our mountains are substantial to wind at all other times, and as such I can not imagine a scenario, regardless of what size storm comes through, in which they are not.
In Lane’s passage we saw the same thing. The moisture built up against the barriers it encountered on the east side of the island. And, notably, more so on the eastern flanks of the taller mountains as the wind initially came out of the east and Kilauea didn't block as much over Puna as did the Maunas did over Hilo and Hamakua. But then as the winds shifted to come more out of the south and the taller Maunas influence included Puna the rainfall totals quickly caught up to those further north. Meanwhile Kona, even though it was closer to the center of the system, was shielded, with only the upper, lighter, less moist clouds seen swirling above, at a height equal to and greater than our Maunas. Kona, for the most part, stayed dry, and wind free. Seemingly, at least in part, shielded by our Maunas.
We could go back and go through a blow by bow examine of the satellite data and I am sure those that would discount the effect of the island would point to the beginning of Lane’s interaction with that upper level shear coming out of the west to account for it’s behavior and demise. And those that take comfort in their beliefs that the Maunas are formidable would point to all the nuances of how as soon as Lane came in close contact with Hawaii Island, and once all that build up on the east side of the island began, the system as a whole also began to break down. And, of course, in truth it was a confluence of all the forces involved.
Alls to say, I agree with Carey, a storm such as Lane is way bigger and under ideal conditions could inflict devastating effects on us, and should never be taken likely. Though, I do not see our mountains as speed bumps but rather more as substantial structures that are under-appreciated in the meteorologists' models. Speed bumps imply that the air and moisture that is passing through will just go over them. In other words slow it down a little but not impede its passage. Our mountains are more formidable and as such stop or redirect the winds and moisture and otherwise change the structure of the storm in ways that are much more substantial than a speed bump. Semantics, I know, but I feel the term speed bump is used to imply insignificance, an implication that is unwarranted in the case of out Maunas
Of course we'll have this discussion over and over with each successive storm. Though hopefully, especially with the graphic example we just witnessed, we can begin to at least leave open the possibility that our island has a unique way of interacting with these types of systems when they come through. And yes the lore is that the island is a storm killer. And yes the science doesn’t support that assumption willy nilly. Though it is interesting to note that science doesn’t refute it either. Unfortunately, those that discuss this point tend to become polarized rather than seeing the many shades of gray between their black or white positions. From what I can tell there is no reason not to embrace a discussion of all the possibilities. And still, no mater, it is so cool to see, witness, experience, another example of how dynamic Mother Nature truly is. Isn’t that one of the wonderful things about living in Hawaii? Where else can one experience so much of what she has all at once, in so dynamic a way, as we do here on Hawaii?
There, I did it. Now all we have to do is sit back and watch as TomK explodes. Just like Trump and his late night tweets. Gee I wonder if Tom tweets?
There were a lot of forces involved, and yes the distance from the island was a major factor. Though there is one force that Mr Knowitall neglected to mention directly, because he can't. He won’t. And watch, he will belittle and demean anyone that would suggest that our local mountains actually played a substantial part is why Kona was so dry.
You will note that before Lane interacted with the island it was pretty symmetrical. So all that gobbledygook the purest (those that don't believe in Mauna Mana) tell you about why it's forces, wind and water etc got concentrate on the east side of the island but still negate to mention the island itself is just that. Gobbledygook. And that so called astronomer knows it. Instead of saying it outright (because he can't - his ego won't fit through that door) he throws at you, without explanation "orographic lift." WTF. He says the island don't mean sh*t but oh oh oh there is orographic lift! Guess what the definition of orographic lift is? "Orographic lift occurs when an air mass is forced from a low elevation to a higher elevation as it moves over rising terrain.”
Wow, we're half way there! But he won't ever, EVER, say the real juicy part. Nope, his ego is way too fragile for that! The wind sometimes doesn't even go over our mountains BECAUSE THEY ARE TOO BIG! And is forced. Forced I tell you! By some magic (Mana? It is called Mana Road after all. That’s gotta stand for something, right?) that makes the wind, while defying everything TomK holds dear, actually go around them. Almost as if they are obstacles. But, please, for your own safety, do not call them as such otherwise our den mother with have a sissy fit. And that silly astronomer may lose his lunch. Nope, we're only allowed to call them speed bumps. Remember that if you want to play nice in this sand box.
Ok.. enough with the preamble..
I repost the following so as to help you see in detail my thoughts on how it is Kona didn't get any of the effect of Lane. It is initially my answer to the question "Did we learn anything from this storm." and though I post it so as to help further the discussion you were obviously so brave to start, I also must warn you the following has already caused Mr K to practically have a heart attack. So if he holds true to form.. and my bet is he can't help himself.. he will be rushing to burn me in effigy.. and probably make many posts to inform you how out of my mind I am.. but hey..
From: http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=25360
I think we witnessed, and those that hadn’t considered it before learned, that our island, being as big and tall as it is, has a unique disruptive influence on the stability of large scale centrifugal weather systems. That our island’s edifices introduce variables into the system’s lower region that set in motion changes that can create instabilities that can effect the entire system as a whole.
Referring back to earlier discussions, yes I agree, a large centrifugal weather system like Lane is far taller, and wider, than our island. And yes, when a system spins the top half may have enough momentum to carry it over obstacles that the bottom half encounters. But none the less, if the bottom half of the system encounters barriers, some change that it has to account for it, they have the potential to introduce variables that will effect the entire system if they are substantial enough. In our case, the barrier is the impressive size of our island with its pointed structures which act like teeth. Broad, gently sloping yet in Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea’s case they are tall enough to block the surface winds and reach into those above. This, obviously, has enough of an effect that on a regular trade wind day it is the overwhelming factor in how the winds and the moisture they carry is moved around and over the island. Our mountains are substantial to wind at all other times, and as such I can not imagine a scenario, regardless of what size storm comes through, in which they are not.
In Lane’s passage we saw the same thing. The moisture built up against the barriers it encountered on the east side of the island. And, notably, more so on the eastern flanks of the taller mountains as the wind initially came out of the east and Kilauea didn't block as much over Puna as did the Maunas did over Hilo and Hamakua. But then as the winds shifted to come more out of the south and the taller Maunas influence included Puna the rainfall totals quickly caught up to those further north. Meanwhile Kona, even though it was closer to the center of the system, was shielded, with only the upper, lighter, less moist clouds seen swirling above, at a height equal to and greater than our Maunas. Kona, for the most part, stayed dry, and wind free. Seemingly, at least in part, shielded by our Maunas.
We could go back and go through a blow by bow examine of the satellite data and I am sure those that would discount the effect of the island would point to the beginning of Lane’s interaction with that upper level shear coming out of the west to account for it’s behavior and demise. And those that take comfort in their beliefs that the Maunas are formidable would point to all the nuances of how as soon as Lane came in close contact with Hawaii Island, and once all that build up on the east side of the island began, the system as a whole also began to break down. And, of course, in truth it was a confluence of all the forces involved.
Alls to say, I agree with Carey, a storm such as Lane is way bigger and under ideal conditions could inflict devastating effects on us, and should never be taken likely. Though, I do not see our mountains as speed bumps but rather more as substantial structures that are under-appreciated in the meteorologists' models. Speed bumps imply that the air and moisture that is passing through will just go over them. In other words slow it down a little but not impede its passage. Our mountains are more formidable and as such stop or redirect the winds and moisture and otherwise change the structure of the storm in ways that are much more substantial than a speed bump. Semantics, I know, but I feel the term speed bump is used to imply insignificance, an implication that is unwarranted in the case of out Maunas
Of course we'll have this discussion over and over with each successive storm. Though hopefully, especially with the graphic example we just witnessed, we can begin to at least leave open the possibility that our island has a unique way of interacting with these types of systems when they come through. And yes the lore is that the island is a storm killer. And yes the science doesn’t support that assumption willy nilly. Though it is interesting to note that science doesn’t refute it either. Unfortunately, those that discuss this point tend to become polarized rather than seeing the many shades of gray between their black or white positions. From what I can tell there is no reason not to embrace a discussion of all the possibilities. And still, no mater, it is so cool to see, witness, experience, another example of how dynamic Mother Nature truly is. Isn’t that one of the wonderful things about living in Hawaii? Where else can one experience so much of what she has all at once, in so dynamic a way, as we do here on Hawaii?
There, I did it. Now all we have to do is sit back and watch as TomK explodes. Just like Trump and his late night tweets. Gee I wonder if Tom tweets?