09-12-2018, 08:34 AM
I am still enjoying the nullschool.net data.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...17.44,3000
At this point, if it is anywhere near correct, the bottom portion of the storm has been severely busted up by the islands and is trying to reform southwest of the Big Island. While what's left of the top half is stuck northeast of Maui, closer to where NOAA puts the center. Though they established a point different from either of them for that.
As to that "busted up by the islands" stuff. Did you note last night's discussion in which the reporting meteorologist said..
"Erratic motion is likely to continue overnight as Olivia encounters terrain, but a general west-southwest motion is expected, with an increase in forward speed. If Olivia's LLCC (low level circulation center) survives the passage near the island terrain, the center is expected to continue moving toward the west-southwest through 48 hours.
I think looking at the dynamic nature of what's going on overall, especially with all the wild stuff happening as the storm system interacts with the island, is way better than some conclusion based on pin pricks on a map representing the center alone. Does anyone know of other models that allow for this much interaction?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...17.44,3000
At this point, if it is anywhere near correct, the bottom portion of the storm has been severely busted up by the islands and is trying to reform southwest of the Big Island. While what's left of the top half is stuck northeast of Maui, closer to where NOAA puts the center. Though they established a point different from either of them for that.
As to that "busted up by the islands" stuff. Did you note last night's discussion in which the reporting meteorologist said..
"Erratic motion is likely to continue overnight as Olivia encounters terrain, but a general west-southwest motion is expected, with an increase in forward speed. If Olivia's LLCC (low level circulation center) survives the passage near the island terrain, the center is expected to continue moving toward the west-southwest through 48 hours.
I think looking at the dynamic nature of what's going on overall, especially with all the wild stuff happening as the storm system interacts with the island, is way better than some conclusion based on pin pricks on a map representing the center alone. Does anyone know of other models that allow for this much interaction?