09-09-2006, 01:56 PM
http://aaronstene.blogspot.com/2006/09/m...crash.html
I was thinking about financial analysts predicting a "housing crash" in the near future today. With the median price dropping 14% in August 2006 (previously blogged here) on the Big Island, these analysts may be right. But at what cost,if the housing market continues tank, our overall economy in Hawaii (and nationwide is going to suffer). As those related industries that support housing, like construction, and real estate are going to be profoundly affected. It irritates me greatly that these "analysts" or "doomsayers" fail to see the huge human factor in the effects of their prognostications.
Another facet to this is, any downtown in Hawaii's economy is going to require the curtailment of government infrastructure projects and services. The last time this happened, in the mid 1990's,West Hawaii got the short end of the stick infrastructure wise.Thus when the economy ramped up again, the infrastructure could not meet the needs of the growing economy. Worse yet,whenever there is downturn in the economy, it seems Hawaii's government tries to re-zone tons of land in preparation of the next land rush. Is that appropriate government planning ?, I tend to strongly think not. Thus why Hawaii desperately needs to diversify our economy and not be catering to the whims of developers wishing to pave over this state.
I was thinking about financial analysts predicting a "housing crash" in the near future today. With the median price dropping 14% in August 2006 (previously blogged here) on the Big Island, these analysts may be right. But at what cost,if the housing market continues tank, our overall economy in Hawaii (and nationwide is going to suffer). As those related industries that support housing, like construction, and real estate are going to be profoundly affected. It irritates me greatly that these "analysts" or "doomsayers" fail to see the huge human factor in the effects of their prognostications.
Another facet to this is, any downtown in Hawaii's economy is going to require the curtailment of government infrastructure projects and services. The last time this happened, in the mid 1990's,West Hawaii got the short end of the stick infrastructure wise.Thus when the economy ramped up again, the infrastructure could not meet the needs of the growing economy. Worse yet,whenever there is downturn in the economy, it seems Hawaii's government tries to re-zone tons of land in preparation of the next land rush. Is that appropriate government planning ?, I tend to strongly think not. Thus why Hawaii desperately needs to diversify our economy and not be catering to the whims of developers wishing to pave over this state.