09-24-2006, 05:09 AM
I know that nobody wants to listen to the bad news. Denial is not just a river in Egypt. I was the same way during the tech stock bubble. Older investors who had been around this block before warned that the bubble would burst: they always do.
I think that Jared's is the worst case scenario--I hope that's the worst case anyhow. Radioguy may be right--I sure hope he is and that lows only go to early 2005 prices. Do any of you realize that tech stocks have not recovered from the bust? Combined, trillions of dollars were lost. Of course, real estate is different from a stock.
I have seen recessions in HI--they are not pretty: tourism falls, locals lose jobs. Quid pro quo. Hawaii's economic viability is inextricably tied to California's. As goes California, so goes Hawaii. I think this is especially true of Southern California.
Prices are already falling and house inventory rising. Brand new houses that couldn't be sold are on the rental market. This is happening in many places in California right now. Where will it all end? Or what exactly will happen--how bad will it get? That's what is unknown. People who can afford to weather the storm will probably be o.k. -- eventually.
As for San Fran: a very special market where housing is limited geographically. Prices there were inflated by the latest, unprecedented run-up. We were lucky and that bullet was dodged by anyone who could afford to hold on to their property until the recession was over. I don't believe anything is certain. But hopefully in 5 or 10 years prices will make all of us proud of ourselves for having the foresight to buy on the Big Island.
I enjoy reading other people's forecasts. I might learn something.
April
I think that Jared's is the worst case scenario--I hope that's the worst case anyhow. Radioguy may be right--I sure hope he is and that lows only go to early 2005 prices. Do any of you realize that tech stocks have not recovered from the bust? Combined, trillions of dollars were lost. Of course, real estate is different from a stock.
I have seen recessions in HI--they are not pretty: tourism falls, locals lose jobs. Quid pro quo. Hawaii's economic viability is inextricably tied to California's. As goes California, so goes Hawaii. I think this is especially true of Southern California.
Prices are already falling and house inventory rising. Brand new houses that couldn't be sold are on the rental market. This is happening in many places in California right now. Where will it all end? Or what exactly will happen--how bad will it get? That's what is unknown. People who can afford to weather the storm will probably be o.k. -- eventually.
As for San Fran: a very special market where housing is limited geographically. Prices there were inflated by the latest, unprecedented run-up. We were lucky and that bullet was dodged by anyone who could afford to hold on to their property until the recession was over. I don't believe anything is certain. But hopefully in 5 or 10 years prices will make all of us proud of ourselves for having the foresight to buy on the Big Island.
I enjoy reading other people's forecasts. I might learn something.
April
april