02-18-2020, 01:23 PM
At the expense of repeating myself, quoting from my 1st post in this thread on pg 17:
" ... From this, most of the infected people are still in the throes of their infection that has not yet been resolved.
Infections have been growing recently from 2k to 4k per day.
They cannot be included in calculating the mortality rate yet.
This particular disease has not run long enough to be able to figure in the total cases and still be reasonably accurate about its effect. ... "
Any estimate of the death rate that is in the low 1 digits or less is based on Total Confirmed Cases.
It would have to be.
At the time of my last post there were still ~59k cases that were unresolved.
Only 14,579 resolved cases are countable in figuring the death rate.
They can't be used to calculate a death rate until they are over it, dead or alive.
You cannot use victims whose disposition has yet to be determined in the final mortality rate.
The mortality rate has been dropping, and hopefully will continue to do so.
There are no mortality rates that can yet be valid.
The outbreak is too new.
There are no usable historical figures, and won't be for quite q while yet.
The only true mortality rate is what has actually happened so far.
If you use Total Confirmed Cases in the calculation, that number assumes all the unresolved cases survive as it counting them as recovered even though they are not.
The low inaccurate numbers are "spin doctor" numbers.
" ... From this, most of the infected people are still in the throes of their infection that has not yet been resolved.
Infections have been growing recently from 2k to 4k per day.
They cannot be included in calculating the mortality rate yet.
This particular disease has not run long enough to be able to figure in the total cases and still be reasonably accurate about its effect. ... "
Any estimate of the death rate that is in the low 1 digits or less is based on Total Confirmed Cases.
It would have to be.
At the time of my last post there were still ~59k cases that were unresolved.
Only 14,579 resolved cases are countable in figuring the death rate.
They can't be used to calculate a death rate until they are over it, dead or alive.
You cannot use victims whose disposition has yet to be determined in the final mortality rate.
The mortality rate has been dropping, and hopefully will continue to do so.
There are no mortality rates that can yet be valid.
The outbreak is too new.
There are no usable historical figures, and won't be for quite q while yet.
The only true mortality rate is what has actually happened so far.
If you use Total Confirmed Cases in the calculation, that number assumes all the unresolved cases survive as it counting them as recovered even though they are not.
The low inaccurate numbers are "spin doctor" numbers.
- - - - - - - - - - -
Was a Democrat until gun control became a knee jerk, then a Republican until the crazies took over, back to being a nonpartisan again.
This time, I can no longer participate in the primary.
Was a Democrat until gun control became a knee jerk, then a Republican until the crazies took over, back to being a nonpartisan again.
This time, I can no longer participate in the primary.