03-11-2020, 09:54 PM
You know, just offhand it seems the further this goes on that the china data is most certainly flawed. They first started having cases at the start of December and did not implement their tough procedures until almost a month and a half later.
For instance on Jan 21 China reported 240 cases and 6 fatalities of the flu and was gearing up to build extra hospitals. 13 days later China had 17205 and 361 Fatalities averaging 1.2 cases per 100,000 people.
To make a comparison lets take a look at Italy when they also had about the same cases as china first started reporting. 229 and 6 fatalities on Feb 25. 13 days later, Italy has slightly fewer infections but a higher death rate. 10149 and 631 Fatalities with an overall infection rate of 16.8 per 100,000.
South Korea, doing much better with testing and containment seems to have settled down to also a 15.9 per 100,000 people infection rate.
The rest of the EU is following the same infection rate per 100K that Italy and South Korea had seen along their previous infection rate numbers.
This is kinda good news because its lower than 20% that might require hospitalization. Its not good because death rate among those is still pretty high.
So if the infection rate stays at that 16 per 100K it would mean that the United states should top out at about 57,000 infections total. Which, to be honest is absolutely wonderful if and I say if that 16:100K infection rate holds true.
It also means that if you take that 16:100K infection rate and apply it to china they actually had to have had 240,000 infections and over 9000 dead.. conservatively.
If we apply those figures to Hawaii, we should only see 226 cases in the same time period as other countries. Keep your fingers crossed.
If the numbers do not change which they may. I think were going to get through this a lot better than before now more solid data is coming out. Lots of things can happen in the next few months to change it, Virus could mutate and become more deadly, or less..
Now, I know your all saying that this does not look bad.. I agree. This looks to be a lot less of a thing than we are being led to believe. So either there is something much more scary to it that we are not being told, or there is another reason for the actions being taken.
For those who like to crunch numbers.. heres the source data https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/
For instance on Jan 21 China reported 240 cases and 6 fatalities of the flu and was gearing up to build extra hospitals. 13 days later China had 17205 and 361 Fatalities averaging 1.2 cases per 100,000 people.
To make a comparison lets take a look at Italy when they also had about the same cases as china first started reporting. 229 and 6 fatalities on Feb 25. 13 days later, Italy has slightly fewer infections but a higher death rate. 10149 and 631 Fatalities with an overall infection rate of 16.8 per 100,000.
South Korea, doing much better with testing and containment seems to have settled down to also a 15.9 per 100,000 people infection rate.
The rest of the EU is following the same infection rate per 100K that Italy and South Korea had seen along their previous infection rate numbers.
This is kinda good news because its lower than 20% that might require hospitalization. Its not good because death rate among those is still pretty high.
So if the infection rate stays at that 16 per 100K it would mean that the United states should top out at about 57,000 infections total. Which, to be honest is absolutely wonderful if and I say if that 16:100K infection rate holds true.
It also means that if you take that 16:100K infection rate and apply it to china they actually had to have had 240,000 infections and over 9000 dead.. conservatively.
If we apply those figures to Hawaii, we should only see 226 cases in the same time period as other countries. Keep your fingers crossed.
If the numbers do not change which they may. I think were going to get through this a lot better than before now more solid data is coming out. Lots of things can happen in the next few months to change it, Virus could mutate and become more deadly, or less..
Now, I know your all saying that this does not look bad.. I agree. This looks to be a lot less of a thing than we are being led to believe. So either there is something much more scary to it that we are not being told, or there is another reason for the actions being taken.
For those who like to crunch numbers.. heres the source data https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/