03-15-2020, 02:35 AM
quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
Most exponential growth curves start at 1. It's not the value now that is of importance, is the path the new values are quickly going to take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...y#Timeline
On Jan 31st, Italy had 2 confirmed cases. Today, six weeks later, they have more than 21,000 confirmed cases and over 1400 deaths. These numbers will continue to rise quickly for many more days.
We now know of 6 cases in Hawaii so how do the next couple months look for us? Maybe it's worth everyone washing their hands and staying home as much as possible to help save some lives?
Compare this to Washington State. First case identified January 21, now 642 confirmed cases as of yesterday. That's 53 days of fairly slow exponential growth. If accurate (doubt it) this rate would be lower than your typical seasonal flu. The pace of spread seems to vary widely from place to place. New York seems to be the hot spot now in US.