04-04-2020, 12:54 PM
[quote]Originally posted by ironyak
China is in their 4th month and still has new cases occurring, 30 more just today. Way past their peak of active cases, but ever upward in total cases until it's over.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/china/
Yes, of course, ever upward in cases and deaths after the peak till it’s over. One of their graphs shows that in very plain site. Why the need to mention it in every response to peak? Durian said back to baseline in July. There was no attempt to spin the info.
It appears China has many areas that the virus has yet to run its course since it has such a large dispersed population...? Deceptive reporting? Dunno, but Italy has hopefully peaked in six weeks or so. Spain may even quicker, but we shall see, of course. But focusing on China in this case is cherry picking in a way.
New York may be peaking in the next week, but if anyone says that, they would be accused of not being sensitive or something.
I _think_ I understand you are spinning stats (a few, perhaps even several, examples over the last weeks, most of which I let be) to make it scarier for everyone so they take social distancing seriously. Perhaps that is the right thing to do. Perhaps the ends justifies the means. Probably.
I like IHME as they are very clear in their how their model works and report how accurate they've been so far and how they've changed their predictions over time as new data comes in. Doesn't mean they are going to be "right" (all their numbers have a large ranges like 39k to 177k U.S. deaths currently predicted), but at least they are being open and honest with their guesswork.
I couldn’t agree more. The first link on the page is about their methodology, and the range of predictions is clear. I hope for the lower range. I assume you do as well.
Cheers,
Kirt
China is in their 4th month and still has new cases occurring, 30 more just today. Way past their peak of active cases, but ever upward in total cases until it's over.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/china/
Yes, of course, ever upward in cases and deaths after the peak till it’s over. One of their graphs shows that in very plain site. Why the need to mention it in every response to peak? Durian said back to baseline in July. There was no attempt to spin the info.
It appears China has many areas that the virus has yet to run its course since it has such a large dispersed population...? Deceptive reporting? Dunno, but Italy has hopefully peaked in six weeks or so. Spain may even quicker, but we shall see, of course. But focusing on China in this case is cherry picking in a way.
New York may be peaking in the next week, but if anyone says that, they would be accused of not being sensitive or something.
I _think_ I understand you are spinning stats (a few, perhaps even several, examples over the last weeks, most of which I let be) to make it scarier for everyone so they take social distancing seriously. Perhaps that is the right thing to do. Perhaps the ends justifies the means. Probably.
I like IHME as they are very clear in their how their model works and report how accurate they've been so far and how they've changed their predictions over time as new data comes in. Doesn't mean they are going to be "right" (all their numbers have a large ranges like 39k to 177k U.S. deaths currently predicted), but at least they are being open and honest with their guesswork.
I couldn’t agree more. The first link on the page is about their methodology, and the range of predictions is clear. I hope for the lower range. I assume you do as well.
Cheers,
Kirt