04-06-2020, 02:25 AM
TomK - However, I really fear those in charge, i.e., the feds and our state's government will try and reopen things too quickly and not wait for new infections to reach zero around the world, and we'll just get a second wave.
Agreed - again, these are just models, predictions, maps - human artifacts that attempt to guess and describe a future reality - they are not the actual reality in which we live.
Here's another model from the University of Texas showing the likelihood of a sustained, undetected outbreak already happening based on current known cases. Chances that is going here on Hawaii Island - 98%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020...emics.html
That's 98% chance we already have uncontrolled, unaccounted for community transmission, but another guess saying only 50 - 450 total deaths is the outcome. Hard to square these two visions of the world right?
In the marketplace of ideas, people appear to be impulse shopping for whatever data makes them feel the most.
The truth is no one knows how this will turn out - could be quite bad and every individual action has an impact. Seems more productive to focus on taking those simple steps that help, rather than trying to pick out the best crystal ball that says what you want to hear?
Agreed - again, these are just models, predictions, maps - human artifacts that attempt to guess and describe a future reality - they are not the actual reality in which we live.
Here's another model from the University of Texas showing the likelihood of a sustained, undetected outbreak already happening based on current known cases. Chances that is going here on Hawaii Island - 98%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020...emics.html
That's 98% chance we already have uncontrolled, unaccounted for community transmission, but another guess saying only 50 - 450 total deaths is the outcome. Hard to square these two visions of the world right?
In the marketplace of ideas, people appear to be impulse shopping for whatever data makes them feel the most.
The truth is no one knows how this will turn out - could be quite bad and every individual action has an impact. Seems more productive to focus on taking those simple steps that help, rather than trying to pick out the best crystal ball that says what you want to hear?