04-07-2020, 05:08 AM
hokuili - Ah, so indefinitely doesn't have to be that long! Cool. Now if we could just get started.
Nothing can go on indefinitely, which is part of why the models are extremely limited - they don't take into account future actions such as loosening of restrictions, or wide-spread testing, or a vaccine, or the virus mutating for better or worse.
As in 1918 Gunnison CO, as cases in the state waned, they ultimately lifted restrictions after about 4 months and got hit with a subsequent wave with 100 people falling ill, although the cases were mild and all survived.
The real kicker with the 1918 Spanish Flu is that it just disappeared in 1920 - no one knows why and so for all the measures taken and attempts made to minimize the impact, the world was spared many more deaths just by chance.
For anyone interested, I highly recommend "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" which documents the people and institutions that dealt with 1918 the Spanish Flu pandemic. Includes some fascinating history about what it took to rapidly modernize the American hospital system in the late 1800s (led by the founding of John Hopkins - the same group that maintains the world's most used map for tracking this pandemic) as well as the bios and personalities of the historic men and women who were on the front lines. The audiobook version makes for good listening while doing other things!
Nothing can go on indefinitely, which is part of why the models are extremely limited - they don't take into account future actions such as loosening of restrictions, or wide-spread testing, or a vaccine, or the virus mutating for better or worse.
As in 1918 Gunnison CO, as cases in the state waned, they ultimately lifted restrictions after about 4 months and got hit with a subsequent wave with 100 people falling ill, although the cases were mild and all survived.
The real kicker with the 1918 Spanish Flu is that it just disappeared in 1920 - no one knows why and so for all the measures taken and attempts made to minimize the impact, the world was spared many more deaths just by chance.
For anyone interested, I highly recommend "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" which documents the people and institutions that dealt with 1918 the Spanish Flu pandemic. Includes some fascinating history about what it took to rapidly modernize the American hospital system in the late 1800s (led by the founding of John Hopkins - the same group that maintains the world's most used map for tracking this pandemic) as well as the bios and personalities of the historic men and women who were on the front lines. The audiobook version makes for good listening while doing other things!