04-17-2020, 08:14 AM
quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
kander - "man forgets parachute while skydiving, dies of covid-19. he was 32 years old" types of problems in the data.
Right... I'm sure that's the problem with the model. I think I'll stick with the insights of people who actually work with data and modelling.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/infl...itics-say/
"IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.
Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain. It then produces a graph showing the number of deaths rising and falling as the epidemic exploded and then dissipated in those cities, resulting in a bell curve. Then (to oversimplify somewhat) it finds where U.S. data fits on that curve. The death curves in cities outside the U.S. are assumed to describe the U.S., too, with no attempt to judge whether countermeasures —lockdowns and other social-distancing strategies — in the U.S. are and will be as effective as elsewhere, especially Wuhan."
Much more at link for those inclined towards reading before opining...
Well, maybe I'm reading it wrong but it appears that after finding fault with model for most of the article the last two paragraphs recognize that 2 other models have recently been agreeing with IHME.(?)