Restrictions to continue!

[Wao nahele kane]

...

"a new COVID variant has been discovered, possibly dangerous, more than likely incubated in an unvaccinated person." ...
"The odds. (It's possible it's from a vaccinated person, but far, far, far less likely.)"

I think we're both making a similar statement, based on the available information.

It's unlikely a rapidly emerged multi mutation occured in the average unvaccinated or vaccinated person. If it did occure in a person, it's likely it happened in a immunocompromised person. And more likely to have occured in a immunocompromised vaccinated person. That would not be the case if this occured with a polio virus because the Polio vaccine is far superior in all aspects towards protecting from Polio than any covid19 vaccine is effective against covid19. 

The fact the covid 19 vaccine has such low efficacy properties and a short lived efficacy against death from covid-19 is a double edge sword. It protects against the final conclusion (death) of covid-19 and that's it. In doing so, it protects immunocompromised hosts from death and therefore resides longer within an immunocompromised vaccinated person than it would in a non-vaccinated immunocompromised person (who likely dies instead of lives and dies more quickly reducing the available mutation making time frame). That's how the odds play out with this covid-19 vaccine. With other historic good vaccines, becoming infected wouldn't typically happen at all. That's the difference, historic vaccines protect against infection and transmission, covid-19 vaccines don't they only reduce complications. That is a double edge sword.

Here's the technicality that the majority haven't noticed.
Note, this is a covid-19 vaccine not a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. There is a difference. Covid-19 is the complications that occure from the SARS-CoV-2 virus. You are technically only vaccinated for complications not the virus itself. This is why it's not referred to as a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.