11-29-2021, 12:48 AM
(11-28-2021, 09:57 PM)kalianna Wrote: The timing of the spike coincided with the arrival of the delta variant. I canʻt remember the website but it indicated that only 2% of new cases this summer were from travelers, and of those, the majority were from returning Hawaii residents and not visitors.
I won't ask for the reference you are citing, mostly because I'll just believe you and I truly do believe you read that somewhere and the data is actually factual. I wont even argue that, I respect it as factual. Fair enough?
Now, let's consider that data and apply it to the situation in reference.
Would the state be testing infected vaccinated people who entered the state that are asymptomatic for covid19? They wouldn't be, obviously, because they pulled the testing requirement for vaccinated people. They're asymptomatic so they feel no reason to get a test. So they don't appear in the data, correct? We aren't doing full testing on everyone, so there's no way we would find asymptomatic vaccinated carriers in the visitor data.
When an asymptomatic infected but vaccinated person comes in from out of state and then infects someone here, the person they infect that gets tested would most likely be a non-vaccinated local who becomes symptomatic, correct? And thus the results with respect to the data collected would show exactly what you cited. Yes?
We cannot dismiss that average 4 day span with a 2-14 day incubation period for symptoms. July 8 to July 12 and the subsiquent increase in cases thereafter. When we consider the circumstances of a vaccinated asymptomatic carrier that would apply within an infection scenario of a local here in Hawaii, we get results that show unvaccinated locals are becoming infected, naturally. We wouldn't expect anything else, unless they tested all those vaccinated people before they got here, then we likely would have seen a whole different data set and drawn a much more accurate picture of what happened. Actually, we'd have likely screened out the vaccinated asymptomatic carriers, not let them in and the spike may not have occured at all if we tested them all.
As it stands today, vaccinated infected people who are asymptomatic are arriving here, even today. They eventually go home and aren't tested for anything, therefore they never appear in the Hawaii data. Why would they? They are far less likely to display symptoms than a non vaccinated person, so they slip right through the data collection because they're never tested. We can expect nothing more when the data isn't fully collected on everyone to begin with.
So the data you saw is no surprise.