09-05-2007, 02:40 AM
Julie,
There is no immediate threat to any community in Puna.
This is a slow moving event. Everything is happening in slow motion and because the North side of the rift is less steep, the lava, at present, is not getting far very quickly. It can takes months for lava to leave the mountain and march to the sea, if it ever does. You can follow the daily reports here: http://volcano.wr.usgs.gov/hvostatus.php
Dr. Jim Kauahikaua's report (linked in another comment) provides the most solid information to date. His report indicates that there is no immediate hazard to nearby communities. As for future hazards, he outlines three scenarios: 1) It stops dead. 2) Fissure activity continues to feed the channel, a scenario that would become more menacing only if there is a significant increase in the effusion rate (I think that means more lava, and lots of it --enough to keep the flow from "stalling"
. He also says changes at the vent could allow lava to flow southeastward. 3) It crusts over and spawns lava tubes and "pancake batter" type flows. If the lava is insulated in a tube, that will allow the lava to stay hotter longer, and go further faster.
Lastly, statistically (as someone pointed out above), the longer an eruption lasts, the more likely it is to produce the kind of flow that forms a tube and could march to the sea, Sherman-like. But that is not the present scenario.
As to where this COULD go, no one knows, except downhill is a good bet, probably following a flow path indicated in Figure 2 of the report. Some things about the flow would have to change before that occurred, as noted above.
This is my intepretation of the report. Don't rely on it in making any decisions as I am inexpert in these matters and am not even a very good amateur. Do read the report. The takeaway message is there is no immediate danger to ANY neighborhood in Puna.
Living in Puna is risky. That risk keeps Puna from becoming homogenized. I chose to buy a house in Lava Zone 3, because Zone 3 was deemed to be safer than Zone 1 and Zone 2 (I think Nanawale is in Zone 2).
Guess where the lava is now intruding? That's right -- Zone 3! So, whatever you do, don't listen to me.
There is no immediate threat to any community in Puna.
This is a slow moving event. Everything is happening in slow motion and because the North side of the rift is less steep, the lava, at present, is not getting far very quickly. It can takes months for lava to leave the mountain and march to the sea, if it ever does. You can follow the daily reports here: http://volcano.wr.usgs.gov/hvostatus.php
Dr. Jim Kauahikaua's report (linked in another comment) provides the most solid information to date. His report indicates that there is no immediate hazard to nearby communities. As for future hazards, he outlines three scenarios: 1) It stops dead. 2) Fissure activity continues to feed the channel, a scenario that would become more menacing only if there is a significant increase in the effusion rate (I think that means more lava, and lots of it --enough to keep the flow from "stalling"
. He also says changes at the vent could allow lava to flow southeastward. 3) It crusts over and spawns lava tubes and "pancake batter" type flows. If the lava is insulated in a tube, that will allow the lava to stay hotter longer, and go further faster. Lastly, statistically (as someone pointed out above), the longer an eruption lasts, the more likely it is to produce the kind of flow that forms a tube and could march to the sea, Sherman-like. But that is not the present scenario.
As to where this COULD go, no one knows, except downhill is a good bet, probably following a flow path indicated in Figure 2 of the report. Some things about the flow would have to change before that occurred, as noted above.
This is my intepretation of the report. Don't rely on it in making any decisions as I am inexpert in these matters and am not even a very good amateur. Do read the report. The takeaway message is there is no immediate danger to ANY neighborhood in Puna.
Living in Puna is risky. That risk keeps Puna from becoming homogenized. I chose to buy a house in Lava Zone 3, because Zone 3 was deemed to be safer than Zone 1 and Zone 2 (I think Nanawale is in Zone 2).
Guess where the lava is now intruding? That's right -- Zone 3! So, whatever you do, don't listen to me.