10-28-2007, 12:37 PM
I just got home from the meeting and reviewed my notes before writing this. I would have been on here sooner, but I had to stay to participate in the HPP Association meeting that followed the volcano presentation. (Road paving committee report went on and on, but was important.)
Jim Kauahikaua gave a sobering report. He must have said at least five times, "There is no immediate danger," but he added that "we have crossed an important threshold with the formation of a lava tube and an associated pahoehoe flow." He had slides showing up to the minute maps and relief lines showing the most likely course of continued advance of the flow. He gave three possible scenarios for the eruption itself. First, it could shift up or down the rift zone at any time. Second, it could slow down or even stop entirely. Third, it could continue erupting as at present. He did imply that it is somewhat unlikely to increase its flow in the present location since it is currently putting out lava at a rate considerably above the historical average.
The flow is currently "fanning out" rather than advancing straight downhill. Jim added that this makes it agonizingly slow for the eventual outcome to become apparent. Due to the fanning, it is impossible at this stage to know which of half a dozen potential paths downhill might be taken. It is unlikely that the thing will punch through a narrow corridor to the sea and more likely that it will continue to spread over a wide area.
The scariest thing he said was that if it continues at its current level of output and direction it would eventually get to our "current location," i.e. the HPP Community Center at Makuu and 16th. He also said that the dips in the road between Ainaloa and Pahoa were likely places for Highway 130 to be cut. It could also be cut in more than one place due to fanning. Further complicating matters is the fact that the flow creates its own topography as it builds up levees and mounds.
When people asked for a time frame, Jim would only say that it could be a very long time because the slope the current flow is one is only a fourth as steep as the old Pu'u O'o flow. Extrapolating from that and other things he said, that could be anywhere from sixteen months to several years to get to the sea. (I could be wildly off on that estimate.)
To everyone's great disappointment, Troy Kindred from County Civil Defense could not be there due to the fires on the other side of the island. Jim declined to answer most questions about roads and evacuations, other than to say that a gravel road connection Kalapana with Chain of Craters road could be built as long as no deep excavation were done. The Campout Flow is apparently still too hot to lay asphalt over or dig into.
If anyone else was there, please add to or correct my report. I did take notes, but I might have gotten something wrong or missed something.
Suddenly less cheerful,
Jerry
Jim Kauahikaua gave a sobering report. He must have said at least five times, "There is no immediate danger," but he added that "we have crossed an important threshold with the formation of a lava tube and an associated pahoehoe flow." He had slides showing up to the minute maps and relief lines showing the most likely course of continued advance of the flow. He gave three possible scenarios for the eruption itself. First, it could shift up or down the rift zone at any time. Second, it could slow down or even stop entirely. Third, it could continue erupting as at present. He did imply that it is somewhat unlikely to increase its flow in the present location since it is currently putting out lava at a rate considerably above the historical average.
The flow is currently "fanning out" rather than advancing straight downhill. Jim added that this makes it agonizingly slow for the eventual outcome to become apparent. Due to the fanning, it is impossible at this stage to know which of half a dozen potential paths downhill might be taken. It is unlikely that the thing will punch through a narrow corridor to the sea and more likely that it will continue to spread over a wide area.
The scariest thing he said was that if it continues at its current level of output and direction it would eventually get to our "current location," i.e. the HPP Community Center at Makuu and 16th. He also said that the dips in the road between Ainaloa and Pahoa were likely places for Highway 130 to be cut. It could also be cut in more than one place due to fanning. Further complicating matters is the fact that the flow creates its own topography as it builds up levees and mounds.
When people asked for a time frame, Jim would only say that it could be a very long time because the slope the current flow is one is only a fourth as steep as the old Pu'u O'o flow. Extrapolating from that and other things he said, that could be anywhere from sixteen months to several years to get to the sea. (I could be wildly off on that estimate.)
To everyone's great disappointment, Troy Kindred from County Civil Defense could not be there due to the fires on the other side of the island. Jim declined to answer most questions about roads and evacuations, other than to say that a gravel road connection Kalapana with Chain of Craters road could be built as long as no deep excavation were done. The Campout Flow is apparently still too hot to lay asphalt over or dig into.
If anyone else was there, please add to or correct my report. I did take notes, but I might have gotten something wrong or missed something.
Suddenly less cheerful,
Jerry