03-19-2008, 09:58 AM
the is no scenario that I can think of in which, considering the current state of the volcano, and the new gas vent at halemaumau, that it's presence does not herald an impending eruption at the summit of kilauea. in other words... since the volcano went through a couple of years of inflation during which the summit instrumentation showed signs that the volcano was taking on more magma from it's source than it was erupting through the vent on the east rift zone, it is possible that during that time of extreme stress a path to the summit's surface was established that now is marked by gas venting and the evidence that enough heat is present to cause the surrounding rock to glow with incandescence. I get a sense that if the path to the summit's surface is that open then it is only logical that magma will find a way to follow it. I do not think we would have to see all the classic signs, as in a seismic swarm or large changes in tilt, that one would expect to proceed an eruption. this is because there already is the path that would otherwise have to be created. and it is that creation that makes all the 'noise' instrumentally. so, if there is an open path between the summit magma body and the surface of the volcano, I suspect magma will follow it without much prompting at all. just by its nature of expanding and seeking out the lowest pressure it will find its way to the surface. at least that is what, in my limited understanding of the forces involved, I am sensing is happening now. but then hey, I may be just imagining things.. too much time to wander in my brain...