04-04-2008, 05:28 PM
The Bear and I flew to Honolulu for the day on Hawaiian, and they are still valiantly trying to help out ATA and Aloha passengers trying to get home. They actually found a group cancellation on United and were able to get a bunch of people home that way. We have been Hawaiian fans for years, and their efforts to help people in this situation have cemented that.
I have an acquaintance in Atlanta who is an airline industry consultant and something of an expert on route yields. His take on the likelihood of Aloha and ATA's routes being assumed by other airlines is that it will be very selective and not comprehensive at all. The reason he gives is that the great bulk of travel to Hawaii is leisure, and leisure travelers do not buy enough full fare and first class seats to make those routes pay well in a high fuel cost environment. He does not expect the big five (American, Delta, United, Northwest, and Continental) to pick up any of the slack, and thinks that they will instead use the shortfall in available seats to be able to sell fewer heavily discounted tickets. Another reason for the big five to keep their current capacity to Hawaii is the fact that they have committed practically all their available trans-oceanic aircraft to the far more lucrative European and Asian markets.
Hawaiian has a limited ability to ramp up its mainland service due to lack of aircraft. (Interisland service on Hawaiian is being increased by extending new flights later into the evenings for the most part.) They do have a big order pending with Airbus for some great new widebodied planes, but the earliest those will be ready is two to three years out. Of course they might be able to lease some widebodies somewhere in the meantime, and I hope they do.
As far a non-stop service from Hilo to the mainland . . . don't hold your breath. After initial high load factors on ATA that caused a larger plane (still narrow-body) to be used, demand fell back and service was cut back from daily to several times a week, and at one point they were only flying once or twice a week. They were supposed to increase frequency this summer, but we all know what happened.
The State of Hawaii needs to do some serious lobbying with the airlines and hope that some discount or new airlines such as Virgin enter the market. Otherwise, there will be hard times in the tourist industry.
Cheers,
Jerry
I have an acquaintance in Atlanta who is an airline industry consultant and something of an expert on route yields. His take on the likelihood of Aloha and ATA's routes being assumed by other airlines is that it will be very selective and not comprehensive at all. The reason he gives is that the great bulk of travel to Hawaii is leisure, and leisure travelers do not buy enough full fare and first class seats to make those routes pay well in a high fuel cost environment. He does not expect the big five (American, Delta, United, Northwest, and Continental) to pick up any of the slack, and thinks that they will instead use the shortfall in available seats to be able to sell fewer heavily discounted tickets. Another reason for the big five to keep their current capacity to Hawaii is the fact that they have committed practically all their available trans-oceanic aircraft to the far more lucrative European and Asian markets.
Hawaiian has a limited ability to ramp up its mainland service due to lack of aircraft. (Interisland service on Hawaiian is being increased by extending new flights later into the evenings for the most part.) They do have a big order pending with Airbus for some great new widebodied planes, but the earliest those will be ready is two to three years out. Of course they might be able to lease some widebodies somewhere in the meantime, and I hope they do.
As far a non-stop service from Hilo to the mainland . . . don't hold your breath. After initial high load factors on ATA that caused a larger plane (still narrow-body) to be used, demand fell back and service was cut back from daily to several times a week, and at one point they were only flying once or twice a week. They were supposed to increase frequency this summer, but we all know what happened.
The State of Hawaii needs to do some serious lobbying with the airlines and hope that some discount or new airlines such as Virgin enter the market. Otherwise, there will be hard times in the tourist industry.
Cheers,
Jerry