09-21-2008, 03:06 AM
San Diego County has been generally immune to ups and downs in the economy. Everyone (except me, StillHope and Andy) wants to live here. Not anymore. San Diego County unemployment is highest it has been since 1993. It will get higher soon because construction activity has completely ceased. Rumors of layoffs in all sectors are rampant. We are now at something like 6%.
Housing -- don't ask. It is actually very hard to estimate where we are because it is a moving target. I estimate that housing values in my zip code are down about 40% from the peak. My personal guess is that they will fall over the next few months to 1998 values.....or below. My plan to leave in 2009 may have to be revised to 2020. My retirement account has taken a pretty bad hit after years of steady growth. They say don't move things around, but it is hard to watch it erode so quickly without hyperventilating.
Meanwhile, in New Orleans, things don't seem to be too much different yet oddly. Housing prices have not fallen that much. I don't really know why. I don't want to say it is a boomtown, but there is a lot of activity. Some people are seeing opportunity there, for whatever reason. I have been able to rent my tiny condo in the French Quarter very quickly to the many young professionals that have gravitated to town. That said, New Orleans thrives on tourism and I expect that will drop off pretty quickly.
My personal projection is that we are entering Great Depression The Sequel. Congress is now presesented with two choices: 1) Bail out the banks and thereby bankrupt the government or 2) Not bail out the banks and thereby destroy the economy (in the short run). I actually think this is a false choice, as the economy has already been destroyed and the bail out will not help. Conservatives, of course, want to bankrupt the Government so it will not operate anymore, and will have no power to obstruct the so-called "Free Market". But the free market, like freedom itself, isn't free: The cost is one trillion dollars in taxpayer dollars. That will truly mean the end of Government.
The bailout will be a temporary fixed designed to obfuscate how bad things really are for a period of about a couple of months.
My prediction for Hawaii is that it will become vastly more isolated. Few carriers can afford to fly there at current fares. They will have to raise them. In a way, this is a positive result. An economy based on inexpensive transportation cannot be sustained. We will have to think in new ways. However, the timing of all of this is not good for those of us who were poised to make The Great Escape.
Housing -- don't ask. It is actually very hard to estimate where we are because it is a moving target. I estimate that housing values in my zip code are down about 40% from the peak. My personal guess is that they will fall over the next few months to 1998 values.....or below. My plan to leave in 2009 may have to be revised to 2020. My retirement account has taken a pretty bad hit after years of steady growth. They say don't move things around, but it is hard to watch it erode so quickly without hyperventilating.
Meanwhile, in New Orleans, things don't seem to be too much different yet oddly. Housing prices have not fallen that much. I don't really know why. I don't want to say it is a boomtown, but there is a lot of activity. Some people are seeing opportunity there, for whatever reason. I have been able to rent my tiny condo in the French Quarter very quickly to the many young professionals that have gravitated to town. That said, New Orleans thrives on tourism and I expect that will drop off pretty quickly.
My personal projection is that we are entering Great Depression The Sequel. Congress is now presesented with two choices: 1) Bail out the banks and thereby bankrupt the government or 2) Not bail out the banks and thereby destroy the economy (in the short run). I actually think this is a false choice, as the economy has already been destroyed and the bail out will not help. Conservatives, of course, want to bankrupt the Government so it will not operate anymore, and will have no power to obstruct the so-called "Free Market". But the free market, like freedom itself, isn't free: The cost is one trillion dollars in taxpayer dollars. That will truly mean the end of Government.
The bailout will be a temporary fixed designed to obfuscate how bad things really are for a period of about a couple of months.
My prediction for Hawaii is that it will become vastly more isolated. Few carriers can afford to fly there at current fares. They will have to raise them. In a way, this is a positive result. An economy based on inexpensive transportation cannot be sustained. We will have to think in new ways. However, the timing of all of this is not good for those of us who were poised to make The Great Escape.