01-03-2010, 09:26 AM
aloha all,
great idea paul, i'd like to see how accurate my predictions for 2010 are in 2011. here goes...
real estate will still be flat. (sorry john!) ARMs are still coming of age in 2010 and will negatively impact the market and psyche of the market. since "new" home construction is stagnate it will contribute to an uptick in existing home sales because of limited inventory. however, overall, home sales will be down due to consumer confidence, lingering unemployment, coming inflation and tax increases.
jobs will continue to be bad for the next year. i think we may have seen the bottom of the overall unemployment rate at 10% or so, and companies have helped by depleting inventories which will create new manufacturing orders. however, i strongly believe that most organizations are "gun shy," due to the horrors of 2009 so will only hire as needed without alot of aggressive expansion in employment. my prediction would be that unemployment will end the year at 8% or so.
the dow will remain up due to money being moved by brokers and continued low interest rates and cheap borrowing (til mid year). i would guess that it will end the year around 12,500 barring some unforeseen terror attack or catastrophic natural disaster.
my real concerns for 2010 are when it will come time to "pay the piper." i foresee coming taxes and inflation in response to our government's poor spending and lack of control. interest rates, tax increases and inflation are sure to come and will most likely halt the economic recovery...
other than that, merry new year to all! can't imagine it will be worse than last year for most so let's hope for the best and enjoy every moment we can!
aloha,
:?)