Predictions for 2010

[808blogger]

The dow could go up to 40000000 but if a loaf of bread is 1000 bucks it wont matter. Why dont you try to measure it in real currency not FIAT currency in which you have no knowledge to even how much exists.

EITHER WAY the market adjusted for inflation peaked in 1996.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20091023.htm


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/time-fo...2010-01-05

quote:

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Originally posted by JWFITZ

As always with those pesky numbers, you utilized them to misrepresent the facts, and in this case in a matter hardly even coheirent. Anyone watching for a bottom following my advice would have started watching for a bottom at 7200 and felt entitled to purchase at 7000 as a sure deal. Since I've not called for a sell date--and don't read one into my prediction--that would be yet another misrepresentation. In this case you'd pocket the difference between whatever intraday low you pulled the trigger on and the value of the Dow Dec 31. There's no reason whatsoever you'd feel entitled to sell out in the nines, that's wholly nuts and a classic PaulW stunt to even bring that up. You'd likely still be holding it today. I would have suggested not to sell at all, but as I didn't suggest a sell date we should keep the return limited to fiscal year 2009. In full disclosure, I personally sold, for tax reasons, at the end of the year, but there's no projected reason why one should as that issue was complete off topic and personal.

And, in the context of the conversation, this prediction was made near 6 months ahead of the event, against popular wisdom, deliberately, and if anyone read the preceding thread--reconfirmed several times. Hardly an off the cuff flier or likely to be just a matter of luck. Not only that it's a qualitatively different kind of prediction, and one that takes a lot of guts--calling for a trend reversal. You decided to get on the bus after it started rolling. I'm not critiquing your call. It's fine. A much less interesting call by any measure and to my mind mostly self evident at the point it was made, but whatever.

And pray tell, Paul, what rate of return would this generate? Spin it how you like it. It's better than yours.

At the end of the day, matter how you want to protray it, my "error" is a better call than your "correct assessment" and comes across as vastly more informed, deliberate, and ahead of the curve. It's obvious, I expect, to anyone still interested in this very tiresome thread, that you're out on some axe grinding mission to discredit that fact by cooking the books. This is no tit-for tat issue. I'm not getting at you or your observations at all, solely defending the matter of record. Hopefully this now is resolved and I can get back to more constructive details. I stick with it soley because people of good will need to have a stronger back-bone standing up with the typical Sean Hannity debate style of misrepresentation, shouting, sneaking off to fade outs if you're losing, and total disingenuity with the sole intent to score points for some agenda. This has become so pervasive and it is very damaging to our country and our community and our future and needs to be shown as such.

Sorry Rob, I do my best to stay out of this crap and not bring it into your forum.

http://sensiblesimplicity.lefora.com/

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