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Lava flow update
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12-03-2013, 05:42 AM
quote: Yes that is the one. Darn its gone!
12-04-2013, 06:34 PM
quote:Well, that depends on what you mean by "normal". Stromboli, for example, has been erupting continuously for several thousand years. Kilauea seems to alternate between erupting along the rift zones and from the summit. The Ai Laau flow mentioned earlier, which includes all the land in the main Puna subdivisions of Keaau ahupuaa (Fern Forest, Hawaiian Acres, Orchidland, and HPP), was the product of a summit eruption centered near the current location of Thurston lava tube that lasted for a couple of hundred years. After that the summit collapsed and formed the caldera with a lava lake, and since that cooled, eruptions have happened along the rift zones. Eventually it will shift back. 
12-05-2013, 04:50 AM
MR: I was referring to the questions regarding the how the volcano will react in the future, based on the past eruptions...
My point was more to the fact that "normal" and predicting future flow are not something most would want to do (other than the fact that since humans have been here, 90% of Kilauea & 60% of Mauna Loa have had lava coverage...that trend has a good likelihood of continuing)... but which areas & when...I don't think anyone would want to predict that with certainty...
12-05-2013, 05:19 AM
Thank you Carey, and everyone. Very informative links and insight you all have posted. The fact that some of these past eruptions in Puna have lasted hundreds of years, makes me think this eruption is really just beginning. Makes me also worry more, if she all of a sudden was to be capped or halt for a period of time. I feel that because there is a constant relief of this lava building underneath, the flows remain slow and constant and a lot more predictable. It's when she stops completely I start to worry more. Still one of the most amazing wonders of the world right in our back yard. Thank you. P.S Anyone know how much lava volume may be under Kilauea at any given time right now?. Or if this amount has increased since 83 or decreased?. Could lead to insight into how long or some possible changes we can see in the future?.
12-05-2013, 05:39 AM
quote: There appears to be a reasonably steady state situation right now: magma is moving up from mantle, 60+ km down, into the summit magma reservoir and then migrates down an established channel to Pu'u O'o where it is erupted. The mantle plume (the source of the magma) has been going for at least 75 million years. That's not to say that the eruption at Pu'u O'o will continue indefinitely - it's reasonable to assume that there are increases and decreases in productivity over time and changes in supply rate could shut Pu'u O'o down; or changes in stresses within the island can cause the eruption vent to change locations on Kilauea. Unfortunately, we don't know enough about the supply or the stresses to be able to meaningfully forecast them...
12-05-2013, 05:41 AM
Gypsy, we knew Ed before he retired & moved mainland, but these FAQs from years back may still have many of the answers you seek. And, if you can make it, a visit to HVO at the Volcanoes National Park may help you get more answers, as the rangers there are very helpful & very well acquainted with this wonderful presence in our backyard.
Ed's FAQs http://www.nps.gov/havo/faqs.htm
12-05-2013, 05:53 AM
quote: What's to worry about? Hello? A little reality check please? We are only on one of the most biggest/active volcano's on the planet.... To put this into prospective... Kilauea is only 5K' and is expected to reach another 7-9' feet before the island shifts off the hot spot. By that time Puna will have been covered in Lava many times over and most likely what was once our lots in Puna will be burred under 1000-3000+' of lava and the ocean will have been moved probably a few miles as the base of the Kilauea expands to accommodate it's mass. Relax... Enjoy and above all don't worry about it.  Enjoy the island! I am sure your realestate person told you all this anyway when you signed your disclosures!
12-05-2013, 06:26 AM
Of course, it will take millions of years for all of this to come about so on average, 7000' divided by say 7 million (just to make the math work out easier) means an average of 1mm per year of increase at the summit. It can be many lifetimes between lava flows on any one given spot in Puna, but of course Royal Gardens is currently in a poor location given recent history. Even being in "Lava Zone 1" means around 25% has seen a flow in the last 215 years and 65% in the last 750 years.
I feel pretty comfortable sitting in Lava zone 3 in a spot that would require Pu'u'o'o to grow a fair bit and fill in a lot in between to have a realistic chance to cover in my life time.
Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike
12-05-2013, 07:19 AM
That's what I tell myself too, and it's probably true as long as things keep perking along as they are. While I am not uphill fro the lava here in Eden Roc, I am pretty far sideways. That buys be a lot of time as things are going now. If Pu'uo'o erupts that would change. If Mauna Loa erupts.....
12-05-2013, 02:15 PM
quote:say what? it is my understanding that the whole island.. the whole thing not just kilauea... is less than one million years since it raised its head above sea level to begin with. and.. as carey pointed out at least 90% of kilauea has been covered in fresh lava within the last 1000 years. btw carey.. hvo is a part of the usgs.. not the nps.. it is in the park but not a part of the park.. and it does not have rangers.. just scientists and their support staff. |
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