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Tropical Storm Ela headed towards north of Hawaii
#11
Expected to happen today:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have continued to become better organized, and satellite
wind data indicate that the surface circulation has become a little
better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical cyclone will
likely form later today
or tonight while the system moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Also this one is getting interesting....

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles south southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii increased in coverage, and have become slightly better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system as it moves slowly toward the north or northeast over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

ETA: dramatic red font
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#12
Some one on Harry's FB page suggested this link -

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/Invest-96E?map=model&MR=1
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#13
The images I like are from tpac:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/tpac.html

with my go-to image loop being the flash loop with water vapor (i like the colors):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-wv.html

neat thing with the tpac images is that above the images they have boxes you cn click for things like sea surface temps (SST) & latitude grid lines

for sea surface data, my go-to is (but there is a lag time on their dat... good for sea surface temp trends):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/an...anim.shtml
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#14
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude
140.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
for the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight
or
early Wednesday.

ETA: dramatic red

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#15
News to night has it going north of us which if it holds is good news but who knows?

jrw
jrw
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#16
I predict wetness.
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#17
I moved a few plants around today so it would be nice if they got a little wet.
Puna: Our roosters crow first
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#18
advisories to begin at 11 pm...

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

1. Tropical depression 04°E has formed and is located about 960 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories on this system at 11 pm HST tonight. This system was moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph."




check this out (in the scenario of a more northerly track running parallel to the island chain)...

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

...96E WILL ALSO PUSH
VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER HAWAII WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
VERY HUMID THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES COULD PEAK AT
NEARLY 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND. ..."


...100F?

------------------------
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#19
Just turn on your air conditioners this weekend if you got em. It's gonna feel like central Florida in August. But trade winds coming back Monday!
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#20
Windy and cloudy down here this AM.

Hoping for a big heavy cooling rain!
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