2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[TomK]

If terracore and Durian Fiend convince me by the end of the hurricane season in 2023 that this it was a wild one, then I will pay $100 to both their chosen charities. Are you guys up for that? You have nothing to lose, I'm not asking for anything if we decide you lose later this year.  It's just that I'm fairly well convinced this year's hurricane season will not be an issue for us.

Well since I have nothing to lose.  And an undetermined charity has everything to gain, I'm in.

But I never said 2023 was going to be a wild one, I was just linking to "experts", and even they were pretty wishy washy based on making assumptions what el nino may or may not do.    What would constitute a "wild" season?  I would have a tough time making a convincing argument when I don't know what the goalposts are.  The wildest season I remember was the one that dropped Iselle on us, but that's because it impacted us directly.  I seem to remember some other seasons where we dodged a lot of major hurricanes but none of them seriously impacted us.

Thanks, terracore. As I said, I'll provide the donation anyway, but want I wanted to do is provoke a discussion about El Nino effects on the islands. I have to get up very early tomorrow to catch a flight back to the mainland and then back home a week later, I'll respond with my thoughts then. My hope is it will be more interesting than the babbling incoherent gibberish we see these days from a couple of posters.

[AaronM]

You can take your hope and stick it in the huhhub ububyu mhvstrhdhtr machine they have been keeping down at the iuda7cecs epucg87gax kine place and then maybe you'll 6fwgadbx673i72tbu!!

[TomK]

"You can take your hope and stick it in the huhhub ububyu mhvstrhdhtr machine they have been keeping down at the iuda7cecs epucg87gax kine place and then maybe you'll 6fwgadbx673i72tbu!!"

Are you OK?

[AaronM]

I'm fine, thank you for the inquiry. I was merely serving up some of that "babbling incoherent gibberish".



































































And Tom, please stop quoting the post immediately preceding your own. The redundancy hurts my eyes.

[Or1on]

I saw a chart awhile back but cannot seem to locate it now.  It was about water temperature around Hawaii.  This is a big factor with hurricanes and I noticed how it peaked in 2015/2016 but has not reached that level since.  Here's a different chart or two but with similar info.

https://www.integratedecosystemassessmen...hot-hawaii

Of course I was pleasantly surprised to see some hopeful data vs the gloom of all "humans and earth in inevitable self-destruct mode"
However, overall the water temp is still expected to increase even though it still hasn't gotten back to that 2015 level.

But anyway there's the direct correlation.  Higher the water temperature, the more hurricanes will be predicted that year.

[Durian Fiend]

The 2015/2016 El Nino index went as high as positive 2.6 and stayed above 2 for 6 months. The only comparable year in the historical record is 1997/1998. We're currently at .7 and rising rapidly over the past month.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ONI_v5.php

1998 was a below average season for East Pacific hurricanes.

[TomK]

I'm fine, thank you for the inquiry.  I was merely serving up some of that "babbling incoherent gibberish".
                                                                                                                                                                                                      And Tom, please stop quoting the post immediately preceding your own.  The redundancy hurts my eyes.

Request denied. Given the propensity of the more moronic posters here to delete their own posts, I choose to quote them. Perhaps you should have your eyes checked if it hurts them.

---

The 2015/2016 El Nino index went as high as  positive 2.6 and stayed above 2 for 6 months.  The only comparable year in the historical record is 1997/1998.  We're currently at .7 and rising rapidly over the past month. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ONI_v5.php

1998 was a below average season for East Pacific hurricanes.

Yes, that's part of my thought process. IMO, strong El Nino events have yet to show any correlation with more storms in the Pacific, especially those that threaten Hawaii. I would be glad to be shown I'm wrong.

[kalianna]

I will be glad if youʻre right.

[TomK]

I hope so too. Durian Fiend has already touched on probably the biggest bit of skepticism I have. There's more to it though, including the lack of steering winds during an El Nino and that warmer sea temperatures don't necessarily mean more hurricanes, it's just that hurricanes that do form may be more powerful. That's obviously not good if one hits us, but we're a very small target.

However, this article caught my attention:


"Expected El Niño Brings 50% Chance Above-Normal Cyclone Activity For Hawaiʻi"


https://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2023/...ai%CA%BBi/


That means NOAA is saying it's a coin toss and I don't see that as a useful forecast. It likely demonstrates that we don't know enough yet about what these conditions will bring which is why I'm so skeptical.

[AinaAKai]

It seems like the main thing to worry about is storm surge, falling trees, and power losses. What do most people do for prep if there is a hurricane?