2024 Hurricane Forecast & Season

[ironyak]

Cyclocane's current spaghetti models are certainly living up to their namesake. Any weather buffs have insight on historically comparable situations or is this overlap/merging of systems heading to Hawaii a bit novel?

   

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

historically comparable situations 

I don’t recall such a scenario, but it does seem unusual.  One positive I’ve seen since yesterday is that most of the spaghetti models have shifted south of the Big Island, rather than heading directly toward Puna.  One negative is that forecasters haven’t suggested what might happen once the systems merge, other than in general terms of 90% development of a storm, rain this weekend or Monday, etc.

[ironyak]

Yeah, the predictions seem to be vague about the merging and the modelling struggling more than usual perhaps. Durgin is posting some forecasts with potentially damaging winds with the storm passing just to the south of the Big Island, which with wind rotation, raises both the history of Lahaina last year and Iselle a decade ago. Never hurts to ready to batten down the hatches - there (may) be dragons here!

ETA: Dropping link to image - Durgin doesn't use unique file names so don't link to a graphic on his site as it will keep being changed to something else! (gif was way too big to attach to the post)

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

the storm passing just to the south of the Big Island, which with wind rotation

Let’s not forget Lane which missed a direct pass over Puna, then stalled over the Pacific west of Kona, and from 200 miles away dumped days of rain on Puna, closing down Highway 130 due to flooding

[kalianna]

It was Lane that bolstered my confidence that Puna could withstand, literally, yards of rain. Now I just look at the wind and having cleared in everything from the outside for no reason a few too many times (I think the last time was Douglas) Iʻm not doing anything until winds are forecast over 30 mph. And now thereʻs a potential third storm in the works. Iʻm hoping that one pushes the two existing systems by us quickly but that may be wishful thinking.

[Amrita]

https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/#v...rlays=wind

Seems like we're in for some unsettled weather with potential for more.

But Windy has it passing south.

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain...-150.039,6

[Punatang]

It was Lane that bolstered my confidence that Puna could withstand, literally, yards of rain.  Now I just look at the wind and having cleared in everything from the outside for no reason a few too many times (I think the last time was Douglas)  Iʻm not doing anything  until winds are forecast over 30 mph. And now thereʻs a potential third storm in the works.  Iʻm hoping that one pushes the two existing systems by us quickly but that may be wishful thinking.

You've become a hardened veteran!  

[HiloJulie]

Now, a name:

“Hone”

Looking like it may just skirt the Big Island to the south. 

Hopefully. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_cp1.sh...t#contents

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Rain from Hone has arrived, and more, much more is on the way.  Blustery, windy conditions over southern Big Island is expected and possible flooding. From Puna Weather:

By Saturday morning the moisture increases significantly producing frequent rain, heavy at times. Precipitable water values rise to an impressive 2.5". During the day on Saturday winds increase to blustery from the northeast. The strong winds pushing the abundant moisture up our mountains will cause even heavier rains with some flooding possible.

Saturday night and Sunday expect rain to be torrential at times, exacerbating flooding. Winds slowly decrease to breezy and sometimes gusty while turning to easterly. Expect very humid conditions.

Both the GFS and the HWRF models initialized well and both show the storm passing by our our south with the highest winds over the southern portion of our island (Pahoa, Volcano, Pahala, Naalehu, etc). These areas could be numerous downed tree limbs and power outages.

All areas from the Hamakua coast to South Point could see 6"-12" of rain with some areas approaching 20".


http://www.punaweather.org/

[ironyak]

Looks like power outages are starting to stack up even before the worst of the rain and wind. In Puna - Between Kaloli & Makuu from 11th to just across the highway, Volcano down to Eden Rock area, Nanawale through parts of Pahoa town and Leilani down to Sea View & Kaimu, etc... Stay safe folks!

https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/safety-...outage-map
Total outages: 21
Total customers impacted: 8341

Somewhat live status updates (no login required): https://x.com/hielectriclight