2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[terracore]

Keep an eye out for Fernanda:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...shtml?cone

There is a much closer storm brewing:

[HiloJulie]

Meanwhile, ole Dora continues to continue:

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2023/08/12...-landfall/

"Hurricane Dora has made national headlines this week for potentially being a key factor along with a large area of high pressure to the north to developing unprecedented winds that brought on Red Flag Warnings to the state and unfortunately fanned fires with more than 60 mph gusts in Lahaina and up to 80 mph winds on Hawaii Island and even over the mountains on Oahu.

Now, after 3 weeks since it developed, it continues to cross basin to basin over the Pacific. From Atlantic to Eastern Pacific to Central Pacific and now to Western Pacific. It has officially reached the international date line, which makes it one of two storms to do this on record.

Hurricane John made such a trip over the Pacific in 1994 which holds the original record for longest-lasting tropical cyclone."

[AaronM]

There is a much closer storm brewing:

Ugh.  Enough already with the storms

[TomK]

Eight-E, the tropical depression closest to us, is forecast to reach tropical storm strength but remain well south of us. Fernanda is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression well east of the islands.

[terracore]

[TomK]

Tropical Storm Greg, which was Eight-E, continues to move westwards well south of the Hawaiian islands and is no threat. It will eventually dissipate a long way south of Hawaii. Fernanda is moving towards Hawaii but is forecast to become a tropical depression well east of the islands. It might bring us some rain. There is a disturbance SW of Mexico that has a very high probability of becoming a cyclone, but it's heading WNW or even NW which may well mean it follows the fortunes of Fernanda. Worth keeping an eye on it for the time being though.

[TomK]

Looking at Windy seems to show fairly low wind speeds on Maui on the leeward side but people are jumping into the ocean to escape a raging fire.

The NWS website is showing much higher winds. I'm thinking that actual observations are more accurate than a computer model.

I missed this post until now, sorry Obie.

Yes, Windy is a model. You can't rely on it to give actual windspeeds at any particular spot. Unfortunately, there are many who don't understand that, so use it to support their pet hypotheses without realizing that supporting observations are required to make a hypothesis more than it is.

[TomK]

Tropical Storm Greg, which was Eight-E, continues to move westwards well south of the Hawaiian islands and is no threat. It will eventually dissipate a long way south of Hawaii. Fernanda is moving towards Hawaii but is forecast to become a tropical depression well east of the islands. It might bring us some rain. There is a disturbance SW of Mexico that has a very high probability of becoming a cyclone, but it's heading WNW or even NW which may well mean it follows the fortunes of Fernanda. Worth keeping an eye on it for the time being though.

The only change from the above info is that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Hilary and may strengthen into a major hurricane very quickly. However, its forecast track is nearly directly north and doesn't threaten Hawaii.

[TomK]

I'll go out on a limb here. I will give $100 to terracore's (and Durian Fiend's) charity of choice if the hurricane season for Hawaii turns out to be as violent as predicted. Personally, I think we'll have a quieter season than normal, whatever that means.

I'm not evoking rules, this is a gentleman's agreement as far as I'm concerned. If terracore and Durian Fiend convince me by the end of the hurricane season in 2023 that this it was a wild one, then I will pay $100 to both their chosen charities. Are you guys up for that? You have nothing to lose, I'm not asking for anything if we decide you lose later this year.  It's just that I'm fairly well convinced this year's hurricane season will not be an issue for us.

I'm a man of my word. I think it's time to decide as hurricane season is about to end and there are no current threats. Did I win or not? I think this was a pretty quiet hurricane season and will need a lot of convincing otherwise. As I said in the thread a little later, I will donate no matter what,  but will need to know the chosen charities and will confirm payment via punaweb PM.

[Durian Fiend]

I'm a man of my word. I think it's time to decide as hurricane season is about to end and there are no current threats. Did I win or not? I think this was a pretty quiet hurricane season and will need a lot of convincing otherwise. As I said in the thread a little later, I will donate no matter what,  but will need to know the chosen charities and will confirm payment via punaweb PM.

You win!  PM sent.  And I must say publicly, it doesn't seem right that you would be the one paying off the bet.