Hi Durian Fiend - I responded to your PM. Hope my response explains everything!
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2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."
2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."
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2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."
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11-30-2023, 07:55 AM
Thanks, terracore, I sent a PM back to you (and apologies for misreading a bit of it!).
AinaAKai - I'm not sure double or nothing makes a lot of sense in this particular case! However, I would be happy to do the same thing at the beginning of next year's hurricane season. I'd rather wait because it's too early to know what the forecast will be and what conditions we'll have for 2024 - remember this was me saying that the hurricane forecast for 2023 was not going to pan out as expected for Hawaii. Next year I might agree with the forecast so the bet will be different!
12-13-2023, 08:50 AM
So, how about something more current?
https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/202...o-persist/ The forecasters are predicting a dryer than normal “rainy season” due to a strong El Nino. I tend to agree because droughts at this time of year do tend to happen in El Nino years. The longest drought I have seen here was 40 years ago during a strong El Nino event, and it was quite scary. Fires everywhere. I’m not proposing a wager of any kind. Just hoping that you will disagree…and be right.
12-13-2023, 09:21 PM
(12-13-2023, 08:50 AM)My 2 cents Wrote: So, how about something more current?Sorry, I agree that it will be drier than "normal". That's almost certain, not only due to El Nino but also because this has been the general trend for Hawaii rainfall over the past 40 years-especially during the past 20 or so. If you look at the current El Nino index, it's not presently a strong signal. Seems like the more pronounced this condition, the greater are the chances for extremely dry weather. So my hope is that it doesn't turn out to be a hazardously dry winter. Here's a link with historical records. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
12-14-2023, 05:09 AM
I also agree with Durian, an El Nino tends to bring dry winters/springs to Hawaii and the current forecasts are suggesting this will be a strong one, possibly similar to 1997/98. I also hope the forecast is wrong.
"El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation ("ENSO") climate pattern—is currently chugging along, and forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through April–June 2024. It's looking like it will be a strong event. A strong event doesn't guarantee strong global impacts, but it does increase the odds that some level of impacts will occur in places with a history of being affected by ENSO." https://www.climate.gov/enso
12-14-2023, 07:27 AM
For an alternative view, Fox Weather thinks the El Nino is collapsing.
The climate pattern known as El Niño, which quickly strengthened into a strong event, appears to be on the brink of a major decline, which would send the world into what is known as a neutral status. https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/...r-forecast 
12-14-2023, 08:08 AM
"For an alternative view..."
Why yes, welcome to today's world, where the answer to virtually every question is always YES, NO AND MAYBE! While I personally hope I am wrong, but I think El Niño is here to stay. Enjoy the recent rains!
“We are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change and the last generation that can do something about it.”
— Barack Obama
12-14-2023, 08:17 AM
(12-14-2023, 08:08 AM)HiloJulie Wrote: "For an alternative view..." How is El Nino here to stay? We know the climate cycles between El Nino and La Nina so how does El Nino continue beyond the usual cycle? |
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