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Bystander, there was a poll a year or two back, and well over 50% of Native Hawaiians were in favor of the TMT. The minority are much more vocal, however. But even if not, well over 50% of the people living in the state are for the TMT, the TMT folks cleared all legal hurdles, and the state conducted the longest and most arduous permit hearing I've ever heard of, so it doesn't really matter (to me) what groups or sub-groups believe should happen. Native Americans voted resoundingly in favor of Clinton over Trump, but that fact didn't mean much to whether Trump took office.
Leilani Estates, 2011 to Present
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HOTPE, thanks for posting that - that's the poll I was referring to.
Leilani Estates, 2011 to Present
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The protestors say the polls are wrong or biased which could be true. It will be interesting to see what will happen. Suppose they succeed and stop TMT, what does that mean for the rest of us? They will probably be emboldened and try something even more crazy.
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The protestors say the polls are wrong or biased which could be true.
What information do protestors have that indicates the poll is wrong? Another poll? Some other info which shows a majority of Native Hawaiians are against the TMT? Or is it that they simply don’t like the results of the poll so therefore it must be wrong?
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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I just said it could be true that polls are wrong because sometimes they are. That's the main evidence the protestor use. Trump won even when the polls said he would lose. You see it in social media. Also they say the poll was not inclusive because no one they know was polled. Another point I've been reading is that only native Hawaiians should have a say regarding TMT. Is this racist? We can't have a race based referendum to decide this issue because...well that would be racist.
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Also they say the poll was not inclusive because no one they know was polled.
I’m not sure I know anyone who has taken part in any poll. By the protestor’s logic, does that mean all polls are wrong? Protestors have no poll, no statistics, no headcount, no nothing that gives any indication whatsoever that a majority of Native Hawaiians oppose the TMT. A few thousand campers on Mauna Kea Access Road? Barely a blip in the total population. 70, or 100 people participating in a convoy on Oahu? A drop in the ocean.
Another point I've been reading is that only native Hawaiians should have a say regarding TMT... We can't have a race based referendum to decide this issue because...well that would be racist.
There is as far as I know, no method currently in place for a Native Hawaiian election. Would they need a blood test to vote? 25%, 50%, 100% Native Hawaiian bloodline to qualify? Would they need to bring results of a certified, notarized blood test to the polling station? Would requiring that information violate HIPA regulations?
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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quote:
Originally posted by bystander
I just said it could be true that polls are wrong because sometimes they are. That's the main evidence the protestor use. Trump won even when the polls said he would lose. You see it in social media. Also they say the poll was not inclusive because no one they know was polled. Another point I've been reading is that only native Hawaiians should have a say regarding TMT. Is this racist? We can't have a race based referendum to decide this issue because...well that would be racist.
The Presidential polls in 2016 weren't actually wrong. They were all pretty much within the margin of error and Hilary did win the popular vote by quite a bit. It was the pundits who were way out of touch and predicted wrong.
With the latest Civil Beat poll on the TMT, the only problem I seen was that they over sampled people over 50. I corrected for the over sampling and it still ended up being that the majority was in favor of the TMT.
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Kaimana,
Thank you for your post. This is just my own hypothesis but I suspect traditional polling techniques are becoming less valid and it's due to social media. In the past, polling used standard statistical errors to provide the plus/minus or percentage error. That is based on randomness and worked well for years, but doesn't work well now in my view.
We now have so many people on social media, reaching out to others and also have others responding that depending on their mood and how others react to them we end up with a situation where their opinions may change quickly.
Polls have their place. On the other hand, I'm not convinced they are useful anymore and would love to see a study about polls, their reliability and if there is a correlation with the use of social media.
I'd do it myself if I had the time!
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Social media needs to be recognized as a powerful force nobody saw coming. I doubt Trump would have got elected without it. The people polled in the Mason Dixon poll may have changed their minds on TMT after being exposed to social media.
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So far, a powerful force for bull**** and propaganda.
