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quote:
Originally posted by Dave M
[navy][size=3][font=Comic Sans MS]
Unlike lostboys opinions, "the real estate agents that allow people to even look outside their means" Real Estate agents (The person that handles most peoples largest transaction of their life) don't control what price range people look in.
Dave M is correct. We do not know what the prospective buyers can afford since we do not know their financials. We are not involved with their loan process either.
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, GM,ARB,BFT,CM,CBR,FHS,PB,RB
808.989.1314
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
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Some real estate agents ARE a big part of the bubble, but as part of showing what's on the market. Outside of Puna, and the lava risk, a house that wasn't a MAJOR fixer for under 500,000 was very hard to find in the boom years. It's not a question of trying to live in a fancy house, but rather a livable house.
After awhile of telling the agent your preferred price range, the one that works, and not finding anything, the price point creeps up. It happens, in an insidious way, and agents encourage it with stuff like "this is you, or "you can make it happen." Lots of positive thinking ... and then life kicks someone and kicks again and it doesn't happen.
You all talk about assuming risks. Well the same applies if the lava shifts and inundates Pahoa, HPP, or name your subdivision. Then people who were fiscally responsible and bought something they could afford will be up a creek because of taking a different risk, called settling for a lava zone because they thought it wouldn't happen and the prices were attractive.
Same dilemma, people need homes and homes in safe areas in decent condition in Hawai'i are not affordable, or were not affordable until this last year.
I will try not to be judgmental of choices when that happens. I'll be empathetic.
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I can't speak for Hawaii, (Rabbi can) but here, just as in the mid-1980s some of the problem lies/lye(sp) (or is it lays?) at the feet of some of these appraisers. Around here they were pounding out the refies and getting pretty creative on the values. And no, I didn't hate it, but since I had no access to that part of the deal.. It was just like the eighties in that if the appraisers didn't hit the numbers for the refinance/or original mortgages they would loose the mortgage co. and or banks business. "Oh yeah, it's gonna get better, it just may get worse first" but maybe this is the trough! Just a couple of days away from Change. [8)]
Blessings,
dave
"It doesn't mean that much to me.. to mean that much to you." Neil Young
Blessings,
dave
"It doesn't mean that much to me.. to mean that much to you." Neil Young
Posts: 414
Threads: 10
Joined: Jun 2006
"this is you, or "you can make it happen." Lots of positive thinking"
Dang Kathy, You make Realtors sound like Time-Share salesman. That sounds more like a car sales pitch or a sweater at the mall. I can see this is under your skin so I won't push. But I assure you I 've never used lines like that.
LOL.. picture me standing by an old dilapidated building/barn out in the middle of rock and cactus telling some guy "It's a little rough but I think you can do something with it" [ ] sorry, at least not me, good TV.
Blessings,
dave
"It doesn't mean that much to me.. to mean that much to you." Neil Young
Blessings,
dave
"It doesn't mean that much to me.. to mean that much to you." Neil Young
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Joined: Jul 2007
O.k. Lets get this straight BANKS/BANKERS are the ones RESPONSIBLE for where they lend their money. End of the blame game.
I went to a banker they did everything they could to get me to qualify for this "median home price" which was way more than I thought I could afford or even wanted to pay. They did things like; not including taxes or insurance in the payment, counting my IRA as income, I'm sure there was more. Consumers are known to be dumb. So if a Banker tells you thats what you can afford and thats what they are gonna give you, you think its true. I ended up buying a house for 100k less then the lender would of loaned me and I'm still in trouble. It all just costs way more then you think it will. Like termite treatment to protect the banks investment when all they care about is hurricane insurance, I'm still crying over that one. Banks cheated the consumers and there investors and now the taxpayers. THEY started all this mess, thats now hurting just about everybody!
On top of all that, they would prefer that you short sell or foreclose your home for a fraction of what you paid for it, instead of modifying the principal! Why? I have no idea. But as tax payers we should demand they modify the principle. 1.They are gonna take the loss anyway. 2. It would stabilize the market. 3. They would probably come out of it with more money then if they shorted it or foreclosed and it would be less of a burden on taxpayers, we are talking somewhere in the 25 trillion dollar range of losses if they don't! End of rant!
Heres the word on the local street Radioguy;
Its taking banks about a year or more to foreclose, 3 to 6 months to modify. Do not fall for a modification that does not reduce the principal! Many of the earlier modifications that were done had added FEES and missed payments that INCREASED your principle @ 10% and also added years to the loan.(see I told you they were jerks).
Most will not even talk to you unless your 3 months behind. Some want you to show income that you can afford it and some want to see that you can't afford it.
You must contact the loss mitigation departments, not customer service you also must fax them letters repeatedly requesting a modification it may take awhile for them to contact you about it, You have to call and make sure they received your fax and opened a file. Then you just wait and save the money, you will probably have to make a triple payment to show good faith when the mod comes through. Basically if your not late on payments and having a hardship like your work hours were cut,inflation etc they are not going to help you, yet anyway.
So whether to walk or not? We'll I'd expect prices to fall another 25% or more if things continue the way they have. 75% drop is what happened here in Puna when the Japanese economy tanked in the 90's now the GLOBAL economy has tanked. There were lots of foreclosures stripped to the bones and the banks could not give them away.
Word is if you got cash you can get a home for 50.00 a square foot, So thats about what the real worth is right now, also a big builder of speck homes is about to be foreclosed on, so expect about 60 to 100 homes to flood the puna market fo cheap. Some people are finding that they can get a much better place for cheaper and are working out private deals with desperate sellers or renting, before they miss payments and there credit is trashed. There is also short selling to preserve your credit and HUD has a program with lots of strings if your really desperate, and bankruptcy may help with a modification.
If your credit is trashed already you may as well live in the home payment free for a year or so and save the money, you'll also have time to decide if you want to keep it or see if any new programs come up, or the banks decide to wise up and stop being so dam greedy and modify the principal.
I seriously doubt that prices come back to the mania they were any time soon, you'll have to do the math and see if it makes sense for you. Defiantly call one of the consumer credit hotlines they have good advice sometimes and see a lawyer if you can afford it, Most of all be informed. I really hate saying all this as it just compounds the problem, but really what fool is gonna keep there home when it lost 75% or more value and you can live better fo cheaper someplace else, talk about a money pit. DO NOT feel bad! its not your fault, its all our fault, and you have to do what you have to do to protect and preserve your family and your future in this economic crisis.
If your an investor its another story but I think it may be possible to modify.
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Here in Fl we are inudated with foreclosures.Not so much where we are but the southern part of the state is bad. We are on the west side 80 mi north of Tampa. What we are seeing here is a lot more people doing for sale by owner with a broker for a set fee they get on the mls on realtor.com. People know they are going to have to take less so they are being more creative and saving where they can dont know if this is good or bad but that is what we are starting to see alot of here. I would certainly consider doing a house swap if anyone is interested in leaving HI.We are putting our newly remodeled home on the market in Feb because we just miss Puna too much. We dont have mortgage so we can be a little more flexible and we did all the work ourselves so we are in good shape but I see it all the time with people I work with they want that one and they cant really afford it. They dont own their home it owns them.How can that make you happy
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quote:
Originally posted by KathyH
Some real estate agents ARE a big part of the bubble...
But there is no and never has been a "bubble" according to these same real estate agents and you know who said this. They were saying this right before it bursts so I agree with you that they helped cause it. Many people were sucked it by their sales talk. They made it seem like prices would continue to climb so people bought before they "missed the boat". Little did they know that boat would soon be sinking.
I wish we couuld bring back the "decline in realestate" thread started in 2006 where I said it would keep going down for years to come and got riduled for it by you know who.
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You can't really blame realtors for talking up the market, that's what they do. They say it so often they start to believe it themselves. And who knows, maybe it helps.
As the saying goes, don't ask a barber if you need a haircut.
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I just can't help myself... so here goes:
It's all a matter of perspective. If you are BUYING right now, the market is GREAT. I see potential and opportunity buying from those who are impatient or who bought something they couldn't afford. I think the whole bail-out concept is hooey....people got subprime loans, negative amortization loans, loans with no proof of income; they borrowed heavily against a house on the mainland to finance building in Hawaii, all so they could make an investment in something they couldn't afford and want it to be someone elses fault. You play hardball, sometimes you lose. That is how it works.
This is no different than the stock market in the 80's. Tech stuff soared, some of us bought and lost a bundle when they fell through the floor. It's risk when you buy anything for investment. No one bailed me out and said "oh, poor you... you made a bad investment and you can't afford the loss so you get a "do over"". I was smart enough not to risk what I could not afford to lose. Others went bankrupt. I say shame on them for their greed.
As for housing values.... it's the whole country, not just HPP. In San Diego county, 25% of the homes are in foreclosure. There are sections in those huge tracts built in the last five years empty now because of it. Governor Schwartznegger pushed recently through legislation that requires a bank to re-assess a home and offer a modified loan at the new lower value at a fixed rate to an owner before they may begin foreclosure! He did this because the national banking bail-out put the banks in position to absorb losses. It's all insane to me.
What does it matter the market value of a house you plan to live in for the next 20 years? You took out the loan, you make the payments. That is the contract you agreed to. You buy on credit, you have bought something you can't afford. Mortgages are the American way and we all accept it as natural, but it really is not. You pay around a million dollars for your two hundred thousand dollar house with all the interest to the banks. How smart is that? So why be surprised at a fluctuation in values?
Many people bought in east Hawaii BECAUSE they thought it was such a bargain. Did you look at the values over the last 10 years? Did you see the trend? Did you do what many did.. .build a house to rent out until you retired by refinancing your mainland home.... only to have the mainland home decrease in value AND flooding the east Hawaii housing market with rentals, causing that to drop rental values by hundreds of dollars? You took a risk. If values had doubled you wouldn't be saying "oh, I feel sorry for the poor guy who has to buy my house" ; you would celebrate your good fortune.
Every one of us who came to Hawaii from somewhere else did so because we saw an opportunity, whether it was social or economic. We made a choice, we affected the local economy in a big way and we experience the gains and losses that result. Again, the major crisis isn't HPP, or PUNA or Hawaii... it's not even the nation, it's the world. We are lucky to live in a place where agriculture is an option. You did note that the lot you bought was probably zoned agriculture and you were thrilled at the lower taxes because of that, right? Well, start an old fashioned victory garden, barter with your neighbors, make the payments you freely agreed to and stick with it. It will go up eventually... we just don't know the timeframe of eventually. We are greedy assuming everything appreciated every year. World economy isn't going that trend at the moment and we are experiencing what everyone else is... at least we are doing it in a place we often call paradise! There is no snow to freeze us out. Food is abundant if you do some work and open your eyes. There is wild pig in the mountains and fish in the sea. Fruit, coffee, vegetables... they all grow large and fast. Can't afford Honey Nut Granola Sparkly cerial? Eat oatmeal. The world doesn't owe any of us steak and eggs! The bus is free, for goodness sake. I NEVER saw that anywhere before. We are spoiled whiners. We think our retirement investments were supposed to be a sure thing.. guess again!! Never has been, never will be. We are lucky to have what we have. When in history did families not have to live with multi-generations in a home to make it as they aged? We live well....we eat well... and we whine because on paper our values aren't what we want them to be. UGH...
Okay, I have now officially ranted and at least half of you will lower your opinion of my usually generous nature. All I can say is that we are in for a difficult time, it is our own fault, and we can whine about it or make life choices to weather it. I for one am planting, raising meat, paring down the luxuries and sharing what I can. The roller coaster ride of life will swing up and swing down and the survivors will be those with open eyes, willing to do some work and not sitting around whining how the world owes them something. You think my dream house in Hawaii included getting up and letting out the sheep to graze, feeding the chickens, scraping chicken poop up, chopping banana leaves for hours to feed those animals, mowing, digging, planting, hauling... YES! I am retired from my profession, but we don't retire from life. We take what we have and we make it work.
Oh, gosh... well, it's how I feel and what I think. Color me jaded but I figure you get out what you put in and anyone who invests in a property on credit (mortgage) is taking a risk. It's about the most secure risk you will ever take and it WILL be solid over time, but in this current world of INSTANT everything, we just may have to hunker down and WAIT instead of move and change on a whim. People's circumstances change. Problems and unexpected dilemmas arise. That is all part of the risk. To assume our choices guaranteed us some level of luxury and comfort in old age is a really bad assumption. Life holds no guarantees. We wake each day and make the best of it. If we are lucky enough for things to be easy and smooth, we should be counting our blessings and good luck, not assuming it is owed to us. We are entitled to NOTHING in this life. We roll the dice and we take our chances every day.
As for PaulW's statement... "Look for the 20K HPP lot within a few weeks"... if it is within 5 blocks of the ocean, I will probably buy it! And if it is worth only $15,000 in two years, it is not anyone's fault. It will have been my choice in the guessing game of what is a good deal!
Okay, it's really late and I probably ate too much chocolate today.
I love you guys, but quit whining about real estate values. The world is on a bumpy path and we just have to get through it.
Pam
I want to be the kind of woman that, when my feet
hit the floor each morning, the devil says
"Oh Crap, She's up!"
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well since my statement has been attacked. For those that don't think real estate agents are not part of this problem think again. I peronall know over 35 agents out of that 35 only one is trustworthy and really has their clients needs to look after them to not make a stupid decision on buying something that they can't afford.
Don't get me wrong their are some good agent out their but not enough to make a dent in the bad ones out their.
And I am not singleing out the real estate agents their just part of it.
I agree that the appraisers have also gotten out of control.
The lending agents. Now this is where the buck stops.
If the agents, appraisers, and lenders were doing their job right,
We wouldn't have such a mess.
People talk that their should be oversight and guidlines to keep this from happening.
Well their are but no one is enforcing them.
You would think that between the real estate agents, appraisers, and lending agents. If they were doing their job right with integrity we wouldn't be in this mess.
setting my soul free....
setting my soul free....
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