Kilauea: what’s next?

[iquetzal]

The Hawaii hot-spot has been in a state of continuous, non-stop eruption for millions of years.
The episodic nature of Puna eruptions, particularly the massive May 4, 2018 eruption, is due to the underground plumbing of magma reservoirs that absorb the continuous magma stream coming up from the deep source. These reservoirs are located well above sea level so that the hydraulic pressure of their contents on underground fractures of the LERZ is immense.
The magma that spewed over lower Puna in 2018 represented the contents of up-slope magma reservoirs that had been bottled up underground until their containment failed.
When the draining of the reservoirs was complete, the eruption ended.
We are now back into the phase where the underground reservoirs are refilling with magma from the hot-spot.
The LERZ will begin smoking and oozing at the surface again in the non-distant future when the vent in Kilauea caldera begins slopping over the rim, indicating that the lava reservoirs are becoming full.
With luck, they will leak profusely, like they did for over 30 years in Kalapana. When they stop leaking, look out.
A casual glance at any USGS Topographic map tells the tale. The shape of Fissure-8 is classic, with many clones scattered across the Puna landscape.
It is an ancient cycle.
Maybe the next time Kilauea goes off, the state will not treat us like rats fit only to be buzzed by tourist helicopters.

[kalianna]

Except that the recent earthquake activity is from Mauna Loa, not Kilauea. Whole different ball game.

[AaronM]

Except that the recent earthquake activity is from Mauna Loa, not Kilauea.  Whole different ball game.

IF the recent earthquake activity at ML turns into any kind of surface lava, I suspect that Lava Zone 1 real estate prices will skyrocket!

[Rob Tucker]

Mauna Loa could be hell on wheels for HOVE. That's all steeply sloped. Nothing slow moving from an eruption.

[Ccat]

Except that the recent earthquake activity is from Mauna Loa, not Kilauea.  Whole different ball game.

IF the recent earthquake activity at ML turns into any kind of surface lava, I suspect that Lava Zone 1 real estate prices will skyrocket!

Hum... ? Why skyrocket?  Because the *other* areas would be expected to get the ML lava flow?

I am no expert.


Ccat

[MyManao]

HOVE is just like all of lower Puna, it's a one road in and one road out sort of deal. And still, imagine, that subdivision has over 100 miles of road. And if a current satellite view is any measure there’s a lot of folks there.

The Southwest Rift of Mauna goes right through HOVE. The entire place is LZ1. And, as such, when the Lava Zone Map pamphlet came out, (1991 I think?)  and HVO made a concerted effort to meet with all the community associations on the island to explain and discuss it's ramifications, it was the folks that ran the HOVE association that said no need, nobody in their community wanted to hear what HVO had to say.

Based on past, recent, history, whole portions of that subdivision could be repaved long before anyone was aware of what happened. Before dawn ever breaks on the first day of a new eruption. In practical terms it's a better bet the eruption would start higher on the mountain and migrate to vents that would impact HOVE. And, as such, give some warning. But still, if the geologic history of the area gives any clue to what's to come, it all could happen in the blink of an eye.

As to 'some warning' remember that one road?

[MarkP]

I read a quote from an elderly resident of HOVE several years ago to the effect of "it only has to hold off 10 more years". Different neighborhoods attract different kinds of people.

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I remember reading similar things about HOVE, that it is one of the only places in Hawaii where residents could be killed in their beds by an eruption.

[randomq]

I swear I'm catching a whiff of sulphur lately...

[AaronM]

CCAT - My thought process being that new residents or investors will seek out LZ9 as a safe haven.

For whatever reason, I brain farted and typed LZ1.

[Durian Fiend]

I swear I'm catching a whiff of sulphur lately...

The local air quality index reported on my Iphone has been around 100 a couple times during this past week, in the early AM.  That's bad, considered to be an unhealthy level.