2018 Hurricane Season

[TomK]

Thanks, Carey.

"Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."

That's not even 1-sigma. It tells you a lot about how complicated the atmosphere is and how little you can trust amateur magic mountain people and their predictions.

[TomK]

Glinda wrote:

"I figure the TMT is the perfect camera for the job"

Then EW wrote:

"So obviously your stupid comment point is invalid."

The TMT is not a camera, will never be a camera and hasn't even been built yet. I realize many here aren't scientists but when people post stupid comments I don't mind pointing it out. It's a bit like when you say hurricanes are typically shredded by the mountains on the Big Island but when asked which storms you're referring too, you can't come up with any examples. Credibility is an issue, you know.

[terracore]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1809091502

"The track guidance remains
fairly tightly clustered, but has started to shift southward."

"The U.S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
will be conducting missions in and around Olivia later today. The
first mission, which will depart from Oahu shortly, will be making
direct measurements in Olivia. This will help us determine the
track, intensity, and size of the system. The second mission by the
53rd will sample the environment around Olivia to provide valuable
data for improved initialization of the forecast models that will
run later today. This is expected to improve the track and intensity
forecasts as Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands this week. Since
there is so much uncertainty for the moment in the initial
intensity, we will only weaken Olivia to a 65 kt hurricane for this
advisory."

Looks like they will have a better track forecast after some more data gathering today.

[Chunkster]

The 05:00 NOAA update has shifted the forecast track slightly southward, with Olivia brushing the northernmost bit of the Big Island instead of the southern shore of Maui. They did note in the discussion that the storm may not lose strength as quickly as they thought earlier, not good news. Hurricane hunter planes are going out early this morning to provide data to update both the models and the expected track, so they should have a more confident forecast later today. Having said that, the "cone of uncertainty" is exactly that, uncertain. Wise people are taking precautions.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

the "cone of uncertainty" is exactly that, uncertain. Wise people are taking precautions.

Yes. Even if we don’t find ourselves directly in the center of the forecast track:

Wind: Puna is well within Olivia’s wind field with tropical storm force winds beginning as early as 8 AM Tuesday.
Rain: If you look at the satellite photos of the storm, you’ll see we’re also in range of the mid to outer bands of clouds which cover a wide area of the Pacific. Even if the hurricane should weaken into a tropical storm, it will reach us with an extensive although less organized cloud mass.

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

---

Originally posted by TomK

That's not even 1-sigma. It tells you a lot about how complicated the atmosphere is and how little you can trust amateur magic mountain people and their predictions.

---

It seems that the track of some hurricanes are easier to predict than others, with this one being one of the more difficult ones.

[leilanidude]

"I figure the TMT is the perfect camera for the job"
-----------
I loved the sarcasm, even reminding me of the type of comment old gypsy69 would have made, although he would have thought it to be a correct statement...

[glinda]

quote:

---

Originally posted by TomK

I realize many here aren't scientists but when people post stupid comments I don't mind pointing it out...

---

I wonder if Laurel and Hardy had this much fun.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I just checked the spaghetti models for Olivia. There are still a few that show a forecast track over Puna, most however are beginning to cluster between Big Island and Maui. The Chunkster Gold Standard ECMWF model has this forecast:

Olivia's path brushes the northern tip of Hawaii Island, Hawi vicinity.
Wind Speed at the center of the storm is forecast at landfall:
65 mph sustained
gusts to 75 mph

Olivia is not deteriorating as rapidly as previous forecast projected. Those are Iselle wind speeds. Remember, a few models still show the storm passing over Puna, and we are well within The Cone of Uncertainty.

[terracore]

"...the ECMWF which is on the north side of the guidance
and has actually shifted a bit northward once again. The GFS remains
on the southern side of the guidance spread. This uncertainty speaks
to the need to not focus on the exact forecast track as Olivia
moves across the islands."

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1809092123