2018 Hurricane Season

[glinda]

please present the evidence...

What? Those drums in the distance ain't enough? The kapuna gathering.. the halau on the side of the road picking liko..all the telltale signs. Sheesh if that ain't enough...

[TomK]

"What? Those drums in the distance ain't enough? The kapuna gathering.. the halau on the side of the road picking liko..all the telltale signs. Sheesh if that ain't enough..."

?

[TomK]

In the meantime, despite the trolling, Olivia has strengthened slightly in the last few hours and may not weaken much until around 36 hours from now - roughly Tuesday morning. Maui might get the brunt of the storm but it depends on how quickly a high-pressure ridge develops NNW of the storm. If it strengthens more quickly than expected it will drive Olivia more to the south and have more of an effect on the Big Island.

[glinda]

Of all the projected paths of Olivia, I am still finding the nullschool.net model to be the most intriguing.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/still.cgi?res=8km&chnl=wv&domain=nep&anim=no&size=large&thumbs=&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeswest&overlay=off

I think it is the most southern track of the spaghetti models as seen here...

https://www.cyclocane.com/olivia-storm-tracker/

So hopefully NOAA is correct to go with the average of all the models. Whereas this particular one looks like it would make landfall in the Hilo area and traverse up the Hamakua coast before getting severely disrupted as it crosses the island proper. I don't know what the commentary would be with this type of behavior but it appears to be indicative of the island itself having a very disruptive influence on the storm system.

You can step through this model in 3 hour increments, verses the lower resolution data that NOAA publishes. Having this particular track go right through the island and to see what the model thinks would happen to the storm system gives me hope that real meteorologists understand the situation better than those that do nothing more that belittle and berate anyone that suggest the islands mass might have a substantial role in how a storm's system evolves if it comes close to our island.

Considering we're all just students of Mother Nature's processes this sure is interesting, educational. I hope that's all it is.. and everyone is safe as Olivia passes.

[ironyak]

glinda - So hopefully NOAA is correct to go with the average of all the models.

My limited understanding was that the single predicted path published was actually based on which model had best matched the storm's recent path, but can't find a link now to support this. Can anyone confirm or deny?

This gives a good breakdown of what factors the different models are considering.
https://weather.com/science/weather-expl...-hurricane

"But I read somewhere, That you've got to beware, You can't believe anything you read." - Jack Johnson

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Most of the spaghetti models are coalescing along the south Maui corridor, landfall could be near Kipahulu, Maui. It’s a rugged coastline, with a single winding road, and lots of forest. The closest comparison to Puna that comes to mind is Waa Waa, but Kipahulu is more weathered, with older more diverse flora. Woody Harrelson has a property there, pray or light one for him, as your beliefs may guide you.

Senior members of the Trump Administration described Trump's mood Wednesday as "volcanic." Wed, Sept 6, 2018

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

---

Originally posted by ironyak

glinda - So hopefully NOAA is correct to go with the average of all the models.

My limited understanding was that the single predicted path published was actually based on which model had best matched the storm's recent path, but can't find a link now to support this.

---

I think it's the ECMWF. National Hurricane center map looks essentially identical to the one presented by Weather Underground.

Bad news: The storm is now expected to retain more strength than the projections from yesterday.

[glinda]

If Olivia holds to the current projected path our mountains, especially the Maunas, won't be as central a player as Haleakala. With this in mind, and seeing how all the maps of the storm system appear to have a larger, wider, spread to the north of it's center, it will be interesting to see if Haleakala has a similar disruptive effect on the systems symmetry as it interacts with the island.

I know those that are strong proponents of shear over magic, mauna mana, piles of rock (whatever one wants to call it) will always point to it as the only defining influence. Though I suspect it will "coincidentally" happen just as the storm begins to interact with the island's land masses. All things considered these are rare opportunities to watch and learn about these dynamic systems.

[Carey]

This is the explanation on each of the NOAA hurricane path (with uncertainty) predictions:

" Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles."

[Chunkster]

Frau Chunkster has laid in her supply of butter pecan and mint chocolate chip ice cream, thereby completing the most critical part of our preparations. The water and less important food supplies are adequate, but I still need to top off the generator reserve gasoline tanks this morning. And I'm still eyeing that tree I don't really like in the front yard. While I'm somewhat relieved to see that the newly christened "Chunkster gold standard model" shows Olivia north of the most dangerous approach to Puna, I'm still concerned.