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HURRICANES IGNACIO AND JIMENA TRACKING NORTH
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08-28-2015, 06:55 AM
Reading up a bit. In the northern hemisphere the highest speed hurricane winds are on the right side of the storm relative to direction of travel. So if max wind gusts are est 105mph on the eyewall rhs, the lhs will have only 85mph gusts. Plus we're looking at a near miss. So I'm thinking maybe ~70 max here... It would be an Iselle recap.
***Still can't figure out how to spell 'car' correctly***
08-28-2015, 06:58 AM
how worried should I be right now?
During the last two updates the forecast cone has shifted north of the island both times, so that's the good news. We're still in the cone, but the center (most likely track of the storm) is projected to pass about 100 miles north of the Big Island. If that holds, we have a 50% chance of 39+ mph winds along the Puna and Hamakua coasts late Monday. I find the forecasts get more accurate about 48 hours out (in this case late Saturday). We're still in the possible path, but looking less so over the last two forecasts.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
08-28-2015, 07:37 AM
quote: 100% With your statement - negative projections abound , and yet a positive outcome Is just as likely , and even more so if people of good will , would align in faith , hope , and good intention.
08-28-2015, 07:50 AM
11 AM Friday Forecast Update:
The hurricane's projected path moved a little farther north of the Big Island, as other factors continue to shift it away from the island(s). We're still in the cone except for Pahala, South Point & HOVE. About a 50% chance of 39+ mph on Monday along the Puna and Hamakua coasts.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
08-28-2015, 08:08 AM
...which would be good, because the Dr Frankenstein style lightning arrangement in the lab isn't quite ready...
***Still can't figure out how to spell 'car' correctly***
08-28-2015, 10:05 AM
quote: It's still to early to tell with both storms but unlike Kimo the various computer models are more or less in agreement with Ignacio taking a northern track. Jimena has the potential to be a larger and stronger system and it might be pushed further west before tracking NW which gives it a stronger possibility of effecting us. Next week we'll know more.
08-28-2015, 03:32 PM
Once in awhile a hurricane will act like most thought it would. The predictions have been very accurate with Ignacio so far, surprisingly. Maybe they will continue this accuracy and Ignacio will slide to the north of us,( keeping my fingers crossed ). This other hurricane now just behind Ignacio is starting to pack some serious strength, may even become a cat 5 storm. I would like to get through this first hurricane before paying to much attention to the next one, Usually. Anyone seen any predictions or cone models to where it may be heading?.
08-28-2015, 04:01 PM
National Hurricane Center, Jimena info: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...l#contents
Yes, the mention of category 5 strikes terror in us all. However, one can see the current timetable for predicted wind velocity for Jimena below. HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 12.3N 124.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA...0249.shtml? ------------------------------- Meaningless trivia: In 2003 we had a rather close brush with a hurricane which was also named Jimena. No wind, but torrential rain.
08-28-2015, 04:18 PM
Ignacio, graphics and whatnot: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=EP122015
Meanwhile, the latest on Ignacio are no major changes but perhaps a smidgen of a glimmer toward the encouraging side. Again tracking a little more to the North of previous, and ...if I am not mistaken... just a little weaker. Discussion: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1508290309 "HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015 500 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2015 [...] DESPITE BEING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES...IGNACIO HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO INTENSIFY THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE CERTAIN WHY...THE CIMSS MIMIC-TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AS WELL AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A RIBBON OF DRY AIR THAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PULLED INTO THE CORE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. IF IGNACIO CAN OVERCOME THIS...THE ENVIRONMENT STILL SEEMS TO FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR STARTS TO INCREASE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THIS SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND SHIPS HAS NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HOLD IGNACIO STRONGER...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SHEAR THEY ARE DEPICTING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.2N 145.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 15.9N 146.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 16.8N 147.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.7N 149.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 18.6N 150.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 20.5N 153.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 22.6N 155.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 24.7N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH" |
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