Mauna Loa

[dobanion]

Coming from someone who is NOT a volcanologist, but at least a casual observer and hobby volcano watcher, I always figured the next Mauna Loa event would be SW rift zone. This is based on nothing more than a knowledge of historical (ie recent) eruptions in the last 200 years or so.

Trying to figure out where the lava will squirt out down to a couple hundred meters seems almost pointless. In 2018, what was the distance between the two farthest vents? Something like a mile?

Since I'm tying this now, right after looking at the seismic map on the HVNP website, I saw something interesting. Lots of rumbling over by Pahala. A Kilauea eruption at the far end of the SW rift? 1823 repeat? I'm sure everyone would support that choice by Pele, nothing there to destroy.

[ironyak]

Obie - The answer is it could affect a tiny bit of Puna and that most of Puna is shielded by Kilauea.

While true, this is a small comfort to those along Highway 11 in Puna. Just looking at the 1984 flow you can see how close it came to following some of the steepest descent lines down toward Fern Forest and onward through Mountain View & Keeau. The ~100m difference in the vent location near the ridge could make an enormous difference in the ultimate path the lava takes.

https://imgur.com/a/XcUnOwA
This is a quick mapping of the 1984 flow against the steepest descent paths (took only 15 mins as Jim, Tim, Matt, and Frank had packaged it up so nicely - is that enough names for everyone?) Have to dig out flow shapes for more historic data from some earlier packages to make a larger comparison but it's a start.

If you look at the SOEST page you can see how the vents progressively moved east in this image:
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/HCV/mloa1984.gif

So yes, there is some merit to the idea based on recent data, although with all trends it's hard not to invoke the immortal words of Disco Stu:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6LOWKVq5sQ

PS: Here's a recent article about how some of those names are doing in the aftermath of the 2018 flow as you care so much about who some of them might be.
https://magazine.pomona.edu/2019/winter/...e-volcano/

[Guest]

quote:

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Originally posted by Obie

What about the OP's original question ?

"When it erupts, does it ever flow to Puna?"

The answer is it could affect a tiny bit of Puna and that most of Puna is shielded by Kilauea.

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Actually the answer is a bit more complicated than that.. at least, in my unprofessional opinion

There is an often overlooked radial rift of Mauna Loa that is IN Puna, and has erupted in the last thousand years.. but not recent enough to be apparent, nor expected to erupt any time soon. But, none-the-less there are vents along it that cross Highway 11 and can be seen at the Glenwood Transfer Station, as well as along that stretch of the highway itself.

The most prominent feature on that rift is Kulani Cone. Though a line drawn from Kulani to the Glenwood Transfer Station on a topo map will reveal a series of vents.. that lead to and are actually in Puna.

As such, any discussion based on the OP would be remiss not to mention them and the larger effect any eruption from that rift would have on Puna.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

check if in fact the Mauna Loa vent locations in the northeast rift have been progressing with each subsequent eruption.

I've looked at the maps and map legends. There might be a trend in there somewhere, but the complex shapes of the flows, the often similar colors used to indicate years of the breakouts doesn't make it easy.

hokuili -
If you have time would you be able to construct a map that would show the breakout point only of each flow with a dot, and the year? Perhaps start with light grey for for the oldest, darkening to black for the most recent? Then extend a line across the dots and it may be easier to see if it trends as suggested?

As a comparison, the stock market goes up and down daily, but the movement for the last ten years has been steadily upward. Mauna Loa lava breakouts may not move in one direction every time, but if displayed as I suggested it might allow all of us to see if the hypothesized trend exists.

[ironyak]

For the time-pressed, here is Frank (yep, same Frank) giving a 7-minute talk in 2018 about Mauna Loa eruptions including flow rates, radial vents, and the Volcano to Keaau inundation zone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLGSxJZ99Tg

HOTPE - a map that would show the breakout point only of each flow with a dot
I agree a map along these lines could be useful (although we know that various flows have returned to the caldera so there clearly isn't an ever-eastward trend across many flows) Unfortunately, I haven't found the digital assets to make such a map quickly, but will post an image or google map link if time and data allow. However, there might be printed publications that could answer this more readily?

dobanion - Lots of rumbling over by Pahala. A Kilauea eruption at the far end of the SW rift? 1823 repeat?
Quakes in this area have been tied to deep magma movements related to the resupply paths for Kilauea and possibly Mauna Loa. HVO did a Volcano Watch article on this recently.
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories...?vwid=1433

[TomK]

"And if you had a name, how would this change anything?"

Because it would be much easier to read their papers and assess the data, evidence and conclusions. That's all I'm asking for. What I didn't expect is ironyak putting words into my mouth and given such disrespect, I'm out of this discussion.

[ironyak]

TomK - What I didn't expect is ironyak putting words into my mouth and given such disrespect

I didn't put words in your mouth, I quoted your contradictory insistence that "I am interested in the veracity of the information, and the first step in that process is to know where the information comes from" while accusing others of committing an appeal-to-authority fallacy and falsely saying that people are "claiming professional credientials [sic] you don't have."

If you don't want disrespect then don't be so eager to dish it out.

TomK - I'm out of this discussion.

It's not like you were really contributing anything to the topic anyways. If you had bothered to read the information provided you might have saw the NERZ vent migration pattern actually quoted in the introduction to the 2017 Mauna Loa maps, which leads here (looks like the idea ended up in a publication after all).

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geo...-migration
"Five times within the past 138 yr (1852, 1855-1856, 1880-1881, 1942, and 1984), lava flows from vents on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa Volcano have reached within a few kilometres of Hilo (the largest city on the Island of Hawaii). Most lavas erupted on this rift zone in historical time have traveled northeastward (toward Hilo), because their eruptive vents have been concentrated north of the rift zone's broad topographic axis. However, with few exceptions each successive historical eruption on the northeast rift zone has occurred farther southeast than the preceding one. Had the 1984 eruptive vents (the most southeasterly yet) opened less than 200 m farther southeast, the bulk of the 1984 lavas would have flowed away from Hilo. If this historical vent-migration pattern continues, the next eruption on the northeast rift zone could send lavas to the southeast, toward less populated areas." (emphasis mine)

So are Jack Lockwood's credentials good enough for you to bother to consider the idea? As I said, all the information you needed was already given, if you actually cared enough about the topic to read a couple pages. After all, to get the sweet pudding of understanding, you need to chew the meat of learning. (How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?)

It's a good thing you're out of this conversation otherwise an apology card might be expected from you - this one seem apropos:
https://cdn.ecommercedns.uk/files/7/2245...orcard.jpg

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

If this historical vent-migration pattern continues, the next eruption on the northeast rift zone could send lavas to the southeast,

Thanks ironyak.
I appreciate the spoon-fed Gerber's Pineapple A'a Lava Puree (Now even more chunky!).

I read & skimmed about half the links posted by you and Obie, all were pertinent, but some weeks, like this week, three magazines show up in my mailbox on Monday and I just can't keep up with everything on my reading list. Especially with the New Yorker. Have you ever subscribed? They just keep coming & coming & coming and most weeks I never even finish all the cartoons. That's a disheartening sense of failure when the next issue arrives.

[ironyak]

No problem HOTPE. I hadn't heard this NERZ vent migration idea before (apparently I don't know the HVO staff well enough to be invited to the KTA tailgating and hottub talks) but a quick search turned up this - https://www.usgs.gov/center-news/volcano...-uncertain

and the first picture shows part of the 1984 flow heading down the southeast flank towards Highway 11 (credit J.P. Lockwood). In trying to better understand the 2017 "Geologic map of the northeast flank of Mauna Loa volcano" (Frank A. Trusdell and John P. Lockwood) linked earlier, I read the accompanying pamphlet (https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2932/a/sim2932a_pamphlet.pdf) and ran across the mention of Lockwood's original paper. The pamphlet also has this interesting idea in the first couple pages:
"[Mauna Loa] appears to have a self-regulating mechanism that evenly distributes long-term activity across its flanks. The geologic record also supports this notion; the time prior to the historical period (Age Group 1, pre-A.D. 1843–1,000 yr B.P.) is dominated by activity on the south side of the NERZ."

So if the vents are migrating to the southeast, the next NERZ eruption may be the start to a long-term trend where most of the flows head southeast towards the Volcano-to-Keaau inundation zone instead of towards Hilo. Combined with the massive changes at Kilauea, this could be the start of an interesting several hundred years for Puna.

Overall this seemed like a more rewarding use of a couple hours than engaging in the intellectual elitism of demanding bona fides for the idea's author. But whatever, I'm clearly not as cultured as some (I don't read the New Yorker, even just for the cartoons!

[Guest]

So if the vents are migrating to the southeast, the next NERZ eruption may be the start to a long-term trend where most of the flows head southeast towards the Volcano-to-Keaau inundation zone instead of towards Hilo. Combined with the massive changes at Kilauea, this could be the start of an interesting several hundred years for Puna.

Interesting point Ironyak. And to think mine was only a silly little idea. You know, one shared so as to put a bit of an edge to the more common 'Mauna Loa doesn't really threaten Puna at all.' And now, wham bam thank you ma'am, you got thee ol gal coming down highway 11 big time! Like, OMG, it could happen tomorrow, geologically speaking. Or, like for real, tomorrow! Jack's vent migration coupled with Frank's video presentation wherein he points out that the entire corridor is potentially in her sites makes this otherwise obscure idea all of a sudden ready for prime time. Front and center! That is, of course, unless you don't have the proper credentials to make such an observation.

So, Ironyak, come clean, you got creds brah?