2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[kalianna]

Looks like it should fall apart before it hits the islands. And itʻs not the first, itʻs the third. Keep an eye on this site:
https://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/

[Amrita]

Calvin now looks like it may reach us head on as either a tropical storm or depression. None the less rain and wind and surf may well be upon us Wednesday. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.sh...t#contents

[terracore]

It looks like the remnants of hurricane Calvin could bring us some wet weather next week.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.sh...t#contents

[terracore]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 141450
TCDEP3

Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL      EP032023
500 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023

Calvin has rapidly intensified since yesterday morning. The latest
geostationary satellite imagery shows the hurricane has a warm and
well-defined 15 n-mi-wide eye, with a pronounced ring of deep
convection surrounding it in recent passive microwave imagery. The
latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T5.5/102 kt from
TAFB and SAB, and the various objective estimates have continued to
rise this morning and range from 96-110 kt. The initial intensity is
raised to 105 kt for this advisory, making Calvin the first major
hurricane of the 2023 eastern Pacific season.

Some additional strengthening is possible today as Calvin remains
embedded within a moist, low-shear environment over sufficiently
warm sea-surface temperatures (SST). The hurricane is expected to
cross the 26C SST isotherm by tomorrow, which should cause its
intensity to level off and eventually induce some weakening as it
moves over cooler waters. Early next week, Calvin is likely to
continue weakening as it encounters less favorable environmental
conditions with increased deep-layer shear and a drier mid-level
environment along its track. Based on recent intensity trends, the
updated NHC forecast lies above the multi-model consensus aids
through 48 h, then more closely agrees with HCCA and IVCN through
the rest of the period.

Calvin's long-term motion is still westward, or 280/14 kt. A
well-established subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific will
steer Calvin generally westward to west-northwestward through early
next week. The track models remain in very good agreement with
little cross-track spread noted throughout the forecast period, and
the latest NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous
one. This brings Calvin across 140W and into the central Pacific
basin by early Monday morning, then toward the Hawaiian Islands
thereafter. Given uncertainties about the status and intensity of
Calvin near the end of the 5-day period, interests in Hawaii should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 13.6N 123.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 14.0N 125.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 14.7N 128.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 15.3N 131.0W  90 KT 105 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 16.0N 133.9W  75 KT  85 MPH
60H  17/0000Z 16.6N 137.0W  60 KT  70 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 17.2N 140.4W  50 KT  60 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 17.9N 147.8W  40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 19.0N 155.5W  35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Durian Fiend]

^ That forecast has it very close to making a direct hit here at 120 hours, with 40 mph winds. Could be interesting.

[AaronM]

Albizia sudden wind shear alert!

[terracore]

The latest forecast shows it still being a tropical storm all the way to Oahu's longitude. Did Iselle even make it that far before petering out to a depression?

Whether or not its going to be a nothingburger, I did the monthly generator maintenance run today... about 10 months late.

[TomK]

Iselle remained a tropical storm passing south of Oahu.

[terracore]

Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number  20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL      EP032023
500 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023

Corrected timing in the key messages

The cloud pattern of Calvin has further deteriorated this morning.
The center is now exposed, and cloud tops have warmed over much of
the circulation with only a small area of moderate to deep
convection noted to the east of the center. The objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to quickly
decline, with a blend of the recent data suggesting that Calvin is
no longer a hurricane. Based on these data and its poor satellite
structure, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.

The track forecast remains straightforward. Calvin is expected to
keep moving generally westward for the next several days as it is
steered by a well-established ridge over the eastern Pacific. This
motion will bring the cyclone into the central Pacific basin (west
of 140W) tonight or early Monday morning. Calvin is forecast to
approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and pass near or over the
Big Island of Hawaii early Wednesday. The track guidance remains in
good agreement on this overall scenario, although the details of its
track near Hawaii are still uncertain given the average amount of
cross-track spread in the guidance. The latest NHC forecast is
slightly faster and has been nudged slightly northward at 60-96 h,
but still lies near the center of the guidance envelope and close to
the HCCA and TVCE aids. 

Calvin will move over 24 deg C waters and into a drier, more stable
environment during the next couple of days. Therefore, continued
weakening is anticipated, and the system could struggle to produce
convection on its trek into the central Pacific basin. As Calvin
moves closer to Hawaii, model-simulated satellite imagery suggests
it could produce some renewed bursts of convection to the north of
its center. This forecast keeps Calvin as a tropical cyclone through
72 h, although it could become post-tropical sooner if convection
collapses for an extended period. Regardless, there is good support
from both the global and hurricane models that Calvin will maintain
some tropical-storm-force winds (mainly to the north of its center)
as it nears Hawaii. With strong deep-layer southwesterly shear
expected in 96-120 h, this forecast shows Calvin opening into a
trough and dissipating by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Calvin is forecast to move across the central Pacific Ocean and
approach the Hawaiian Islands during the next few days. A Tropical
Storm Watch could be issued for portions of the main Hawaiian
Islands later today, and interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
the latest forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 16.0N 134.8W  60 KT  70 MPH
12H  17/0000Z 16.4N 137.3W  55 KT  65 MPH
24H  17/1200Z 17.0N 140.6W  45 KT  50 MPH
36H  18/0000Z 17.5N 144.2W  45 KT  50 MPH
48H  18/1200Z 17.9N 147.9W  40 KT  45 MPH
60H  19/0000Z 18.6N 151.6W  40 KT  45 MPH
72H  19/1200Z 19.2N 155.0W  35 KT  40 MPH
96H  20/1200Z 20.1N 161.8W  30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[SBH]

Good thing we have those shield volcanoes to shield us.