Hawaii Tourism Cool Down Looms - good or bad?

[Durian Fiend]

Good and Bad?

There is a veritable flood of rentals onto the market in Puna, right this moment, that are fully furnished and were clearly either vacay-rentals or people's getaways. Granted, sometimes those come on the market his time of year for the off season only but those are generally clearly marked and these do not appear to be those.

So maybe it's bad if you were hoping to cash in on that vacay-rental income stream or bop on down to the states, but it's really great if you are a local renter who benefits from the increase in rental inventory?

Sorry but I hope it helps Punatics who need shelter to find a great həʊs eh.

How did you become aware of this?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

were clearly either vacay-rentals or people's getaways.

This is Merrie Monarch Week.  Probably the busiest week of the year in East Hawaii for short term rentals.  B&Bs etc can pretty much name their price and get it.  If they rented this week at the going rate, they’d make as much as they’d get in three maybe four months for a long term lease.  Seems like an unusual time for a decision like this to be made.

???

[Punatang]

were clearly either vacay-rentals or people's getaways.

This is Merrie Monarch Week.  Probably the busiest week of the year in East Hawaii for short term rentals.  B&Bs etc can pretty much name their price and get it.

???

Great point.  IDK maybe they're Schrodinger's hale which are currently occupied for MM but being marketed for long term aftah?  Did less people come for MM due to all of the chaos?

How did you become aware of this?

It's my odd hobby of keeping up with the housing market.  You can see for yourself on Zillow and CL.  Probably FB too but I don't go there unless I have to.  You guys boycotting Zuck too?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

due to all of the chaos?

You might have hit the nail on the head. Consumer sentiment has dropped off a cliff, and economic outlook for the rest of the year is down down down. Flights to Hawaii have empty seats and foreign travelers are canceling plans to visit the islands. Perhaps local homeowners have considered their options and decided to get someone with a signed lease in their investment property so they can hopefully at least cover part of the mortgage, taxes, and insurance bills. Otherwise it’s 2008 all over again.

[Punatang]

Sometimes ya gotta take the medicine.

Another 2008 could be really amazing for all of the people who can't afford housing and the homeless but really bad for folks who bought later in the bubble. Cycles happen. There are winners and losers. We are due for a correction. (see HPP homes thread).

If you rely directly or indirectly on pimping da aina for your income, then fewer tourists is no bueno. If not, it's nice to get a parking spot on Bayfront.  

If you're bed wetting over climate change then less air travel and less consumer consumption should help lower your anxiety. 

If you enjoy being a cynic, naysayer, hater, complainer or worrier then this should feel like Christmas.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Another 2008 could be really amazing for all of the people who can't afford housing and the homeless

Yes, imaginary 2008 sounds positively fantastic.

But reality 2008 went something like this:
* home prices down 40-50%
* investments down 30-50%
* businesses lost sales, went bankrupt
* unemployment up up up

I tried to buy one of those cheap houses you talked about. But my investments were down so it wasn’t possible. I went to my bank of 20+ years, personal & business accounts, asked for a loan with 50% down. They told me they weren’t writing any new home loans. But hopefully one of homeless you mentioned above was able to get a loan from his bank, or squat in that house.

Win-win?

[Punatang]

Another 2008 could be really amazing for all of the people who can't afford housing and the homeless

Yes, imaginary 2008 sounds positively fantastic.

But reality 2008 went something like this:
* home prices down 40-50%
* investments down 30-50%
* businesses lost sales, went bankrupt
* unemployment up up up

I tried to buy one of those cheap houses you talked about.  But my investments were down so it wasn’t possible.  I went to my bank of 20+ years, personal & business accounts, asked for a loan with 50% down.  They told me they weren’t writing any new home loans.  But hopefully one of homeless you mentioned above was able to get a loan from his bank, or squat in that house.

Win-win?

Listen to the song man.  Listen to the song.

I paid 62K for a house at the bottom and sold it way too early after only 4 years for 167k.  I put less than 5k and some sweat into it.  Winners and losers.  Tons of people crushed it.  There was a ton of opportunity everywhere. Sorry you couldn't make it work. You have your reality and I have mine. Listen to the song man. Listen to the song.

[TomK]

Listen to the song man.  Listen to the song.

Listening to the first few seconds of that song immediately made me think of old Tom and Jerry cartoons. I don't mean this in a bad way; it brought back wonderful childhood memories!

[leilanidude]

I paid 62K for a house at the bottom and sold it way too early after only 4 years for 167k. I put less than 5k and some sweat into it. Winners and losers. Tons of people crushed it. There was a ton of opportunity everywhere. Sorry you couldn't make it work. You have your reality and I have mine. Listen to the song man. Listen to the song.
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I bought one in 2012, market was just starting to come back at that time, mid/upper Leilani for $225k, put less than $5k in it and sold 18 months later for $375k, but I had it on the market for 7 months. I saw that it sold again last summer for $465k, but I wouldn't have wanted to sit on it that long.

[Durian Fiend]

Sometimes ya gotta take the medicine.

Another 2008 could be really amazing for all of the people who can't afford housing and the homeless but really bad for folks who bought later in the bubble. Cycles happen. There are winners and losers...

You mean, force fed the medicine?   As if anyone would have a choice in the matter.   

When speculators buy homes during a downturn and then flip them for a tidy profit a few years later, that's not beneficial for locals who are chronically struggling to afford mortgages or rents.  Another wave of mainlanders just come in to snap up the high priced homes.

A cool down is bad for the state economy-no doubt about it.