When, not If lava crosses 130...

[ericlp]

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-78.jpg

updated map...

Looks like it grew another finger. Doesn't look good, but then again not bad considering it has not moved forward.

I think it's going to fill in the space between the old flow and new flow before continuing to 130 but that is just my guess.

[Bullwinkle]

at the current 400ft per month advance and being about half way at 5 miles .... kentucky windage would have it at about 5-6 years away (?)

any math majors?

[SBH]

At that rate you describe, which obviously won't remain at that same rate, it would take 2006 days or 5-1/2 years.

[snorkle]

One thing remains consistent with Kilauea; She has been erupting steadily for over thirty years. Whatever the future brings to Puna, Kilauea has been the dominant feature of our district.

I feel it's more of a blessing than a curse.

[bgiles]

Hokey Smokes, Bullwinkle. You'd better get a good supply of Upsidaisium.

bamboo2u

[VancouverIslander]

The Kahauale'a II flow started in early May 2013 and it's furthest advance so far has been to 7.8km from the source. This gives 780m/month as the average rate of advance rather than 400ft. This rate gives about a year before hitting the back end of Ainaloa (if it goes that direction and lasts that long) and a few months more than that to hit 130. Again, emphasis on it lasting that long. It's also of note that an extended deflationary tilt caused the flow to stall completely and then restart 2-3 km back along the lava tube and that it's taken less than a month for the flow to reach it's present location back near the furthest point pre-stall. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the flow on average is moving faster than the previously mentioned 400ft/month and that it moves in fits and starts rather than a steady flow.

[Haaheo okole puka]

If one considers the Hilina slump, it may be best (for the near future at least) that the lava continues down the path it's on now as not to add anymore weight on the current shelf? Better the current flow direction than a potential 9.0+ magnitude earthquake and mega tsunami
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilina_Slump
http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf115/sf115p09.htm

[Midnight Rambler]

The thing is, most of the distance covered came between September and November. Between May and September it mostly ponded at the base of Puu Oo; it grew another arm since November, but hasn't gone any further downslope. Compare:
September 19: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-65.jpg
November 16: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-69.jpg
latest: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-78.jpg

In that time, it moved about two miles, about a mile (1.6 km) per month. But as VI noted, it still hasn't reached the furthest extent of the previous end, never mind the several previous flows that have gone in that direction. So while it could pump up again and start speeding downslope, it may be reaching the limit of how far it can go in that direction. The slope isn't that steep so it needs a lot of flow pressure behind it to keep going down.

[DanielP]

As long as the flow creates tubes along whatever direction it goes, it can go a long way with the tube insulating it from cooling.
Bass fiddle music please.

[Haaheo okole puka]

Here's another Hilina Slump link: http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/2006/171/data/cr...tml/24.htm