Where is it safe?

[kalakoa]

Nothing is safe; any safety is temporary.

Embrace the chaos, or live in fear.

[csgray]

Uruguay is the only country in the world with NO natural disasters: no earthquakes, no tornadoes, no volcanoes, no hurricanes, no blizzards or ice storms, and no tsunamis, no major floods. They are also the only country whose food production ability is supposed to go up as a result of global climate change. So in answer to the question: where is it safe? Uruguay.

Carol

[Lee M-S]

You can also ask your insurance company what they think is safe; ours wouldn't insure our house in lava zones 1-3, so we had to find a new company when we bought in zone 3.

><(((*> ~~~~ ><(("> ~~~~ ><'> ~~~~ >(>

[Bullwinkle]

good timely article on the 1984 event interesting in that it only lasted three weeks, yet may have been the closest call in a while :

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/slideshow?widgetid=108321

overheard a ranger talking about the 1959 event at the national park - "viewers cars backed all the way up to Hilo"

[rainyjim]

I love your posts carol.

[fishenjim]

From a u.s.g.s digital pamphlet I have recently seen Kilauea is known as an effusive volcano but has a history as recent as 1790 of being an explosive volcano having erupted on the scale of mt st Helen.So the way I understand it madam Pele may continue her leisurely stroll through puna.Or she may decide to pick it up a bit or a whole lot. No way of knowing if or when only that it HAS happened in the past.Safe well I don't believe any of us are ever safe,any sense of security is a false sense of security. Better for your psyche to forget all that bunk and realise how correct M.R. Tom Petty was when he wrote "sure as night will turn to day most things I worry about never happen any way".Then be sure to have a good escape plan.I for one can't wait to as I see it so aptly put elsewhere on this site "live on the edge of creation"If the last thing I see is Pele blowing her top its got to be better than the drunk driver in the wrong lane or the cancer clinic or well you get the idea.

[csgray]

As long as Kilauea is oozing lava we are unlikely to have an explosive event barring a major earthquake that allows seawater to meet magma, in which case our island will experience an event like Krakatoa did, and blow into pieces. Shield volcanoes are rarely explosive because the slow steady eruption pattern keeps the pressure from building up. That doesn't mean they never explode, they are just less likely to. I am only going to worry about a large scale explosive event if the current eruptive activity stops. This is the most "productive" volcano on the planet, if it stops releasing that production, pressure could build up fast, and then we are in trouble.

Carol

[missydog1]

hawaiian, when you take a survey from Puna-dwellers youÔre asking people who are OK with volcanic risk, or they wouldnÔt live there or buy there.

Go ask people who moved to North Kohala, and youÔll get different responses. No eruption there in 60,000 years and the volcanoes that were there are considered extinct. Even though Halaeakala is not.

Carey means a Mauna Loa event in her post about the threat to Hilo, not Mauna Kea. Carey is always right, other than that small slip. [] I so admire how much she knows.

I agree no place is safe, and itÔs best to be in the place that feels right.
That said, I have had enough fire. I lost my home to fire once, I almost lost it a second time when my neighborsÔ house burned down and it almost took mine. I lived in the Bay Area at the time of the Oakland Hills firestorm when whole neighborhoods near me were lost.

People have different tolerance levels for losing stuff, and at different times of life. I lost most of my photos of my kids from their first ten years to fire, and that was tough. Lost art I had created. Many memories gone. Also I was uninsured, and it took about five years to sort of recover economically.

I know i canÔt keep fire out of my life if it wants to be there, but I donÔt thumb my nose at it either. Until your house burns down, you most likely donÔt believe it will happen to you.

I wonÔt live in the tsunami zone either, but I realize that a megatsunami could get me, sure. Or I could be passing through the tsunami zone when a local quake happens. IÔm not safe at all, but I did elect not to buy in Zone 1 or 2. It wasnÔt for me.

[leilaniguy]

I've always siad that: An erupting volcano is a happy volcano.

[missydog1]

The "new" theory on Kilauea published in 2011 is a little different than what Carol is saying. ItÔs not talking about the shield volcano exploding. ItÔs talking about the nature of the eruption cycling between slow gentle flows and explosive gaseous eruption that hurls rocks and is dangerous at long distances from the source.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Hawai...355889.php

If I spent more time looking I could find something more scientific sounding than SFgate, but this is essentially what came out and was widely published.

They now know that Kileaua cycles between the two stages, and they donÔt say that the explosive cycle is a result of pressure build-up. It goes on too long to be a response to build-up.

The current cycle has been 200 years of lava flows, but before that 300 years of explosive eruption, including the explosion that instantly killed the marching warriors way off on the coastal plane in 1790.

The prior explosive cycle lasted 1200 years.

quote:

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The geologic record shows that Kilauea's activity has been marked by a period dominated by frequent lava flows from about 2,500 to 2,200 years ago, followed by a long period of explosive eruptions that continued for about the next 1,200 years; then another 500 years of lava flows, followed by about 300 years of eruptions, and then by more lava flows that continue today.

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The next explosive stage could start at any time or not for another thousand years. They donÔt know. They monitor the summit crater for telltale signs.