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Has anyone been watching the model evolution over the past 48 hours? At first the GFS solution seemed like the outlier scenario, but the European model is coming in line with it now.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_l..._WINDS_SLP
Come on weather geeks lets start discussing this...
Looks like an upper level anti-cyclone builds overhead after a surface feature passes to the east by early next week. Our SSTs are crazy hot and they extend further east than climatology would suggest. But the outflow channel to the north through northeast looks confined. Right now the system has no spin and is very shallow.
Why is the GFS so agressive with it's development?
Anyways, it's not far away. So if it's going to be part of our weekend, we'll need to know about it pretty quick.
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I was checking out the wave forecast here;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=hi
when I noticed it this morning! Still a week away and hopefully conditions change. This is the storm Oahu should fear the most coming at them out of the SE. That is their exposed side. I was here during Hurricane Flossie a few years ago and it dissipated rather quickly and we saw very little rain or wind from the system here in Mountain View.
I talked to the lead forecaster Jeff in Honolulu and he said they won't have an opinion on it until it crosses longitude 140 which puts it pretty close to Hawaii. Being a week out it's too early to batten down the hatches but definitely people in Hawaii would want to monitor it.
It also showing up in the extended forecast here;
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxpa.html
I think the GFS is so aggressive because conditions are ripe with the warm SSTs check here;
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Of course this site will have the most info when it gets closer;
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
This is by far the warmest I have ever seen the Central Pacific. and coming out of the ITCZ shear won't be a factor until it moves North.
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18Z GFS runs looking about the same. I agree about those SSTs, crazy. The ULL that's passing by, might stall just west of Kauai. That might help induce shear on that side. And the 300mb maps don't look too good for outflow to the northwest through north-northeast. Lot's of factors on these "homegrown" systems.
Glad to meet you Ino. It's so rare that I find another with similar interests
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/w...wv+/48h/3h
Pulled this from a past pre-Iselle post Opihikaobob started. Satellite works well one speed down from default.
Community begins with Aloha
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Beautiful link Tink! Wow, you can really pick out our ULL to the northeast. The mess in the ITCZ looks pretty disorganized. Maybe it'll never get it's act together. We've certainly seen that many times over. Hoping for the best, doesn't mean not planning ahead. Iselle was more impact that I would have guessed.
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Hey there! I love weather and am fascinated by it. Studying it via the various modes links am humbled by it, with these systems floating all around us and the world. And of course, these are very personal if they get close to our island home. Thanks for the great links, and for the informational descriptions. Sounds like exciting weather coming.
However, am 100% lay person with this tech and terminology. You guys sound like scientists. Can you be so kind to tell the meaning of the acronyms for: GFS, SSTs, ITCZ, ULL. It would be much more fun to keep up! Thanks for your patience and Mahalo. (It might benefit others as well.)
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I too love the weather and am completely mesmerized by it! Great joy to be had everyday just watching the weather here!
From the NWS Glossary;
http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=g
GFS Global Forecast System;
One of the operational forecast models run at NCEP (National Centers Environmental Prediction) . The GFS is run four times daily, with forecast output out to 384 hours.
SST's Sea Surface Temperature;
The term refers to the mean temperature of the ocean in the upper few meters.
ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone;
Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. The region where the northeasterly and southeasterly tradewinds converge, forming an often continuous band of clouds or thunderstorms near the equator
ULL Upper Level Low Not listed in the glossary but used extensively
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Not a scientist myself, but a weather enthusiast. The GFS is one of the most popular models for forecasting our atmosphere. It is useful for both large scale weather systems and tropical systems. It is not as useful as some of the other models for predicting the genesis of a tropical system.
SSTs are sea surface temperatures. They are an important part of the energy needed for a tropical storm to start and grow. 26C is the lower limit, but our 30C is plenty warm enough for whatever.
The ITCZ is the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It is a ring of convection that circles the planet near the equator. Pulses in the ITCZ move from east to west. It is always south of us.
ULL is and upper level low. A cold pool in the upper atmosphere. One of those is just northeast of us now, it's headed overhead Sunday/Monday. It'll destabilize our atmosphere and greatly enhance trade showers. Maybe even some lightning. Or graupel on the summit.
I don't know if that helps or not, but I do love to discuss the weather. BTW latest 18z wavewatch iii runs are out
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=hi
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I see the GFS has come further south, more in line with the European model. That sounds like good news to me. Can't wait to see what the 12Z run has in store.
Our ULL is just sitting there. Hasn't moved in a while, and it's filling in. Looks like it will be later and shallower than it appeared yesterday. I wonder how that will effect the future trajectory of our surface circulation. Speaking of surface circulations, it looks like one is starting now.
Looks like Ino and I were writing our responses at the same time
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Thank you SO MUCH for the definitions and the explanations. I love it! It's nice to be watching weather systems instead of lava for a change. Mahalo again.
