ANA NOAA page w/ WIND SPEED PROB

[Carey]

Just listened to PBS Ana discussion & the NOAA & Hurricane specialists both recommended to look at the wind speed probabilities, so I went to the NOAA site & have it here (to update, just click on the graphics):
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=CP022014&latest=y#prob34

[missydog1]

I confess to having no talent reading graphs or graphics. Greek to me. Translate, please? I see wind speeds but don't know how to read how much they will reduce over the distance from land.

I looked at NOAA's forecast, and even the South Point forecast is only 29 miles an hour. Kapoho same. My place north of Hilo 25 mph.

Rain, yes, but I don't worry about rain. It doesn't knock trees over on power lines.
If a heavy rain could flood me out, I would have been gone long ago. []

Kathy

[PunaMauka2]

ha, this is the graphic which tends to give me a stomachache. ...as the % probabilities just about invariably increase as a storm gets closer. not so much tonight though, feeling relaxed and fine as can be expected with Ana, that wicked wahine, flirtatiously lurking on by. rather think i can enjoy a day of torrential downpours.

[Wao nahele kane]

The envelope of probabilities is reduced closer to the actual current location of the event as certainty is most prevalent at the event location. As the storm moves closer to us, it's probability envelope contracts relative to our location while the probability envelope advances beyond us to the north west. The current 10% chance of us getting winds of 39mph are greater now because we still sit forward of the storms present position and it's future manifest path is not 100% certain. As the storm gets closer to us, more certainty will be displayed for our location relative to the event and we may very likely end up in the white region of the graph.

[SBH]

Looks like 10-20 knot winds for us if this is right, that's a relief. I've got higher wind speeds in my pants.

[Wao nahele kane]

I doubt we'll see anything above normal wind speeds here in Puna from this event, in fact, it may likely become abnormally calm. The probabilities are extremely low at the moment for any significant winds here and that probability is more likely to reduce as it gets closer.

South Point looks to be most destine for a 10% chance of 39mph winds but that's not too far from their norm.

Another way to view the graph is as follows. We currently have a 90% chance of not getting hit by winds of 39mph and it would appear that we always have a 95% chance of not getting hit by 39mph winds regardless of Ana.

[PunaMauka2]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=CP022014

when a tropical storm or hurricane gets closer on it's approach, i highly recommend this graphic linked above to get a visual idea of basically what to expect in terms of wind. especially if you look at that wind history graphic next to the usual tracking graphic (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=CP022014).

looking at both together today, to my eye it reassuringly looks like the far limit of tropical storm winds will most probably safely skirt on by to the west of South Point. looks like it would take an extremely unexpected, dramatic and highly unlikely shift at this late stage to bring T.S. winds into Puna.

[kimo wires]

I used to live in Kihei. The winds would blow gale force to 60 mph during fronts and strong trades.
Not worried about Ana at this point.

[macuu222]

We're actually hoping for some winds....it's just sooo humid today and the air is just still. Not much rain and actually partly sunny...but sooo very humid!

[Kapohocat]

So far less surge than a king tide - this was at 4 pm Kapoho on Waiopae Rd.