10-17-2014, 04:15 AM
Ana Friday 8am update
Ana took advantage of the favorable conditions last night to increase in strength. She is currently still too weak to be classified as a hurricane. ADT satellite estimated intensity 991.7mb with maximum winds at 63mph. Currently the 40mph winds extend and average of 30 miles from the center. The highest winds are confined to the very central region.
Future intensity is based on water temperatures under Ana being near 27.5C for the next couple of day. And shear from the west around 10-15mph through Saturday evening, which is enough limit strengthening. The air around her is more moist than yesterday, so I don't see dry air being a problem. It's daytime now, and that is not the best time for tropical storms to intensify. She is trying to form an eyewall and if she succeeds, she could strengthen a little more. Given all that the SHIPS intensity forecast shows a maximum intensity over the next day of 70mph, just barely hurricane intensity.
The most recent track can be seen in the image below. She is being steered by a high pressure system to the north, and there have been no changes to this forecast philosophy for a couple of days now. The high is slightly weaker than last night's models showed, and I don't know how that will effect Honolulu. But it doesn't make any difference for the Big Island.
She's going west enough to miss bringing us wind. Just, rain, rain, rain. Which is just fine with me.
I gotta admit, on Monday I was freakin' scared. And with Iselle, Julio, and Ana responding to warmer sea surface temperatures by entering our area of interest, I'm very concerned about the future. We had mild El Nino conditions this year. When we have our next strong El Nino, Hawaii could be in the crosshairs. I think this year has been a wakeup call to make sure you've got your house properly strapped, and are ready to hurricanes being a part of our weather.
I expect this to be my last post on Ana, unless conditions warrant.
http://harrysserver.com/3.png (satellite images showing Ana's path)
Ana took advantage of the favorable conditions last night to increase in strength. She is currently still too weak to be classified as a hurricane. ADT satellite estimated intensity 991.7mb with maximum winds at 63mph. Currently the 40mph winds extend and average of 30 miles from the center. The highest winds are confined to the very central region.
Future intensity is based on water temperatures under Ana being near 27.5C for the next couple of day. And shear from the west around 10-15mph through Saturday evening, which is enough limit strengthening. The air around her is more moist than yesterday, so I don't see dry air being a problem. It's daytime now, and that is not the best time for tropical storms to intensify. She is trying to form an eyewall and if she succeeds, she could strengthen a little more. Given all that the SHIPS intensity forecast shows a maximum intensity over the next day of 70mph, just barely hurricane intensity.
The most recent track can be seen in the image below. She is being steered by a high pressure system to the north, and there have been no changes to this forecast philosophy for a couple of days now. The high is slightly weaker than last night's models showed, and I don't know how that will effect Honolulu. But it doesn't make any difference for the Big Island.
She's going west enough to miss bringing us wind. Just, rain, rain, rain. Which is just fine with me.
I gotta admit, on Monday I was freakin' scared. And with Iselle, Julio, and Ana responding to warmer sea surface temperatures by entering our area of interest, I'm very concerned about the future. We had mild El Nino conditions this year. When we have our next strong El Nino, Hawaii could be in the crosshairs. I think this year has been a wakeup call to make sure you've got your house properly strapped, and are ready to hurricanes being a part of our weather.
I expect this to be my last post on Ana, unless conditions warrant.
http://harrysserver.com/3.png (satellite images showing Ana's path)
