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***Still can't figure out how to spell 'car' correctly***
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Good time to prepare if you haven't done it months ago.
One more warning to get it done.
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We have our pet carriers down, ice blocks in the freezer (and perishables are being eaten down), vehicle are being kept full, have some small denomination cash on hand (no elec = no credit or ATM!), grab n go bag packed & pet & people food bag restocked (still should get a box of those magical Cheerios), water jugs filled
Still have to around the house & trim down those plants that might break, pick the fruit that might become airborne bombs, tie down or store all of the patio & trim stuff....
Wish we had gotten our storm security doors ordered in time, they should be in at the end of NEXT week...so much for that plan with this storm...
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The track is to go north of the BI and become a tropical storm
aloha
Dan D
HPP
HPP
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Guillermo is right now a tropical storm, with winds at 70mph, just below hurricane status of 74mph. It is predicted to be a Cat 2 Hurricane over the weekend, then have the winds weaken to a cat 1 on Monday....if the wind shear arrives on Sunday as predicted.
If not, it has formed & if it stays on the predicted path, it is in very favorable ocean conditions, with SeaSurfaceTemps from 29-30C Most of Hawaii County is now in 28C waters.... this is over 80F...so very favorable for cyclone storms...
Hopefully the wind shear from the west will arrive, but I would use caution this weekend and start to look at having things ready for later next week....if needed...
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informative site...http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2015073100_NPO_GFS_SFC_WINDS_SLP
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Winds speeds of 80MPH at 10:55 = Hurricane status
This is now a storm that should be watched by all of us on island, as even if it does die down, it could very likely effect our weather next week
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No time to drop your guard and it's still pretty far off 1700 miles from Hilo so that almost anything could happen but Wind Shear and Hurricanes don't get along;
http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropic...ther-page/
If you look at this page's Current Eastern Pacific Wind Shear Tendency Analysis you'll see that Hawaii is on the Southern edge of a vast area of wind shear.
There is an unusually strong (for the season) low latitude, mid latitude storm just West of Hawaii. Supported by a cool spot in the North Central Pacific this storm looks like it will mix it up with Guillermo and probably will dissipate it as it approaches Hawaii with a SW wind shear steering the storm North. Still too far off to know definitively. Currently the storm track is also favorable for Hawaii as we won't be on the right or strong side of the storm.
Definitely a storm to keep an eye on.
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Thank you, Ino, I always look forward to your posts.
"There is an unusually strong (for the season) low latitude, mid latitude storm just West of Hawaii[...]"
I'm not so worried about Guillermo, but if memory serves, this is by far and away the most active period for tropical storms in the Eastern and central Pacific I can remember. We've had strong El Nino events in the past, the last really strong one I remember was 97/98, but this seems different. It might be we now have better technology which detects more storms (just like earthquake detection), but wondered if you have an opinion about this. Thanks.
