HILDA TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR BI

[terracore]

WTPA35 PHFO 130252
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST WED AUG 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HILDA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 152.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HILDA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.4 WEST. HILDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THURSDAY
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HILDA WILL PRODUCE
LARGE SURF ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY.

RAINFALL...HILDA MAY PRODUCE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES OF UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE...ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS
PATH. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/JELSEMA

NNNN

[kalakoa]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/rb-l.jpg

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Forecast cone, tracking north of the islands:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...ml?5-daynl

[terracore]

That's a forecast cone from 1,215 miles and 7ish days away. Considering this storm went to hurricane status almost 3 days ahead of the "forecast".... keep this one on your radar.

[Opihikaobob]

You people worry too much, but just in case I'll telepathically call my alien friends and have them keep an eye on it.
[]

[Guest]

Hurricane Hilda looks very similar to iniki, they have a few things in common during their early stages of development. Hopeing hilda makes an early turn to the north and doesn't try sliding south of the big island like Iniki did. Probably not a good idea to let your gaurd down on this storm, or any other storm for that matter during seasons like these.

[PunaMauka2]

I was thinking Hurricane Hilda has more in common with the Black Plague than Iniki. ...just saying, to calm frayed nerves for the greater good.

[MattKarma]

quote:

---

please can we keep the coconut posts in the coconut thread?

---

Fine. But if someone gets hit in the head by falling coconuts, don't blame me!

[leilanidude]

Just remember, the "cone" is only the possible path of the center of the storm. The actual storm is much, much larger.

[dakine]

quote:

---

Originally posted by leilanidude

Just remember, the "cone" is only the possible path of the center of the storm. The actual storm is much, much larger.

---

But that's not even true. If you look back at last week's predictive modeling for Guillermo you'll see that the actual path of the storm was not even in the predictive 'cone'. sheesh at one point the storm was centered on our island and when it actually made it into Hawaiian waters it was completely outside of the 'cone' that was modeled earlier. And, much much smaller in both size and intensity than predicted.

I am not saying trouble can't be brewing just around the corner, just that the Weather Service's modeling is primitive at best... i.e. their batting average sucks