HILDA TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR BI

[Guest]

Good evening Punamauka2. Just a couple pages ago on this thread, you ripped my early comparison of Hilda to Iniki of some 20 years ago. You wrote something about a black plague or shamed me for prying on the already frayed nerves. Then you post that garbage prediction of yours. let's be real dude, This hurricane is no joke. Wherever it hits as a depression or tropical storm could be life threatening. Some of our worst flooding in hilo or puna over the years comes from compact depressions or tropical storms like these. Hawaiian acres could be a mess this weekend, people either don't know they live in a flood zone or forget?

Still have not heard reports about the possible storm surge, or the possible wave heights that could be associated with Hilda? The slow movement of hilda over the island could spell more trouble than a larger faster storm, expect plenty of rain.

[TomK]

"You wrote something about a black plague or shamed me for prying on the already frayed nerves."

How does one pry on frayed nerves?

[opihikao]

quote:

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Originally posted by gypsy69

Good evening Punamauka2. Just a couple pages ago on this thread, you ripped my early comparison of Hilda to Iniki of some 20 years ago. You wrote something about a black plague or shamed me for prying on the already frayed nerves. Then you post that garbage prediction of yours. let's be real dude, This hurricane is no joke. Wherever it hits as a depression or tropical storm could be life threatening. Some of our worst flooding in hilo or puna over the years comes from compact depressions or tropical storms like these. Hawaiian acres could be a mess this weekend, people either don't know they live in a flood zone or forget?

Still have not heard reports about the possible storm surge, or the possible wave heights that could be associated with Hilda? The slow movement of hilda over the island could spell more trouble than a larger faster storm, expect plenty of rain.

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Aloha ahiahi, gypsy. Hamau, na ho'i. You are correct ; it is no joke. As some call you a "troll", perhaps, the accuser(s) may fall into the category of the same. Don't take the bait. (Sure wish we had an "ignore button").

For our ohana, this storm may continue the "cleansing" of our aina. We have hauled out so much crap from our land, from ice boxes, to cars, to bags and bags of home produced garbage, to needles and more. Over two (2) tons to date! [!] (Pohoiki area) Iselle did a wonderful job of "cleansing", although the devastation was great. The shoreline was pilau already, and getting worse. "Mother Nature" (that's what peeps call "her") is an uncontrollable force. We deal with it.

During Iselle, nobody died, nobody was critically injured, nobody was starving, and Puna made a brief "front page", newsworth call for HELP. Did we get it? Will we get it again if needed? We shall see.

The storms come and go, and we just need to be prepared. In the old days, you had less than one (1) hour to get your ohana safe. At least today, we have forewarning.

We'll be fine. I'm waiting for Tutu Pele to start her next ho'i. []

JMO.

[PunaMauka2]

quote:

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Originally posted by TomK

Leilaniguy, PM2 is just having a bit of fun!

The more southerly track is actually a good thing, it shows Hilda is weakening a little quicker than originally expected. Recent satellite images show it started encountering some significant shear today, and the weaker it becomes, the more the trade winds influence the track, hence a more southerly track.

The Hurricane Hunters took off late this afternoon and are probably in the system right now. When the data from that mission gets into the forecast, we should have a much better idea of what to expect. I'm hoping that'll be in the 11pm update tonight.

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Thank you for that, Tom. You are correct. Just a little relieved that the forecast is currently looking less dangerous than some of us might have earlier dared expect. One would be mistaken to read much of anything into it beyond that.

Back to updates, etc.

[TomK]

It's very frustrating, sometimes, when people just don't understand stuff. Have a look at this from the Big Island Chronicle:

"Hurricane Hilda: Let’s Hope This Forecast is Wrong, Too"

http://www.bigislandchronicle.com/2015/0...wrong-too/

"The Pacific Hurricane Center has released a forecast map that appears to show Hurricane Hilda passing directly over the top of Mauna Loa next Friday."

The article also shows a plot of Hilda impacting the Big Island as a tropical depression, not a hurricane. Why hope the forecast is wrong?

Sometimes I just despair.

[TomK]

The latest forecast discussion at 11pm Sunday evening, August 9 HST:

"THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO HILDA WAS CONDUCTED BY THE
U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON EARLIER THIS EVENING...
WITH ANOTHER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
CONFIRM THAT HILDA IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE FLIGHT LEVEL...DROPSONDE AND SFMR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS DETERMINED TO BE 85 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
NOTED THAT THE EYE WAS EVOLVING IN SHAPE AND SIZE...WITH BREAKS IN
THE EYE WALL APPARENT. GRADUALLY INCREASING CENTRAL PRESSURE LEADS
TO THE CONCLUSION THAT HILDA IS ON A WEAKENING TREND."

You can read the rest at:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1508100903

Next update at 5am Monday from:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Hilda

[PunaMauka2]

Continues to sound very encouraging, all things considered. 30 - 35 mph estimated max sustained winds near the center ...I'll take it.

[Ino]

One of the biggest reasons Hawaii is not hit very often by hurricanes is the Subtropical Jet Stream. Since the Subtropical Jet Stream flows from West to East at high altitudes. and hurricanes move from East to West we have a conflict and lucky for us the Subtropical Jet almost always prevails. When we have an El Nino, this jet stream dramatically strengthens and goes much further to our East. Good news for Calif. if this weather pattern holds till Winter 2016. It'll be an active storm track. Currently the jet is South of it's normal 30 degrees North latitude location and lies between 20-25 degrees North;
http://www.personal.psu.edu/suc195/assign4_elnino.html

You could see the effect of this jet with portions of Guillermo's moisture getting sucked all the way into Calif. where it did bring some showers-look at the last 7 days;
http://water.weather.gov/precip/?yesterday=1

Looks like Hilda will meet the same fate as Guillermo as the subtropical jet will take it's top off. If the current tracking cone is correct and it passes just to our South. Puna will be in the right front quadrant as it passes so we could expect the worse of whatever's left of this storm after it deals with all that wind shear;
http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropic...ther-page/

You can monitor the subtropical jet here. If you look at this model at this time you can see that Hilda comes up and dents the jet temporarily and then it gets overwhelmed and dissipated by the jet. These are upper level winds so you could still have a low level circulation center. We're just about 20 degrees North latitude. The jet fluctuates back and forth (North to South like a snake) and if one of these storms happens when the subtropical jet is to our North then our chances of getting hit would definitely go up. Hurricanes and wind shear do not get along. So far this jet has been where we need it to weaken the storms as they approach;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...a=npac_250

[TomK]

Thanks, Ino. Some, unfortunately, will claim the clouds being torn off the tops of Hilda will bring rain to California. They did it with Guillermo; no reason to believe they won't post the same again. Unless they actually learned something, but that's a long shot.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

5 AM Monday:
Forecast track has again moved farther south, storm projected to arrive Thursday afternoon over Ka'u District.
There's a 20% chance of 39 mph maximum winds.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/display_probwinds.php?stormid=EP102015&latest=y#prob34